Trump‘s Pledge for Ukraine Peace Faces challenges Amid Ongoing Conflict
january 18, 2025
president-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but as his inauguration approaches, achieving lasting peace remains a formidable challenge. The conflict, now entering its fourth year, sees both Moscow and Kyiv intensifying efforts on the battlefield to strengthen their positions ahead of any potential negotiations.
In the past year, Russian forces have steadily advanced through Ukrainian defenses, aiming to secure full control over four eastern and southern regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. These regions were illegally annexed by Russia early in the war but have yet to be entirely captured.Additionally, Russia has launched multiple waves of missile and droneHere’s an article based on the source text, written in AP style:
Ukraine’s Peace Prospects Shift Amid Battlefield Challenges
As Russia maintains its military advantage in ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has adjusted his stance on peace negotiations while grappling with significant battlefield challenges and troop shortages.
in a notable shift from his initial position demanding complete Russian withdrawal from occupied territories, Zelenskyy has moderated his prerequisites for peace talks. while continuing to seek strong Western security guarantees, especially from the United States, he faces hesitation from allies regarding immediate NATO membership.
The Ukrainian leader emphasizes the importance of a lasting peace agreement rather than a temporary cessation of hostilities. His current strategy includes advocating for Western peacekeeping forces, though this proposal has yet to gain significant traction among allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed the possibility of a temporary truce,citing ongoing offensive operations. According to former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker, Russia appears motivated to maximize territorial gains, particularly in anticipation of potential peace initiatives from former President Donald Trump.
The military situation remains challenging for Ukraine. Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory,including Crimea,which it annexed in 2014. Throughout 2024, Russian forces have maintained offensive momentum, achieving their most considerable gains since the war’s early phase.
Ukraine faces critical personnel shortages, struggling to recruit enough soldiers to offset casualties and desertion rates. Michael Kofman, a Carnegie Endowment senior fellow, highlights the crucial need to stabilize the front line, noting that Ukraine’s military recruitment has substantially decreased since summer, particularly affecting infantry units.
Russian military analyst Sergei Poletaev suggests Moscow’s strategy relies on a war of attrition, employing methodical, small-scale advances across multiple fronts while aiming to exhaust Ukrainian military capabilities and state resources.
The evolving situation underscores the complex challenges facing Ukraine as it balances military necessity with diplomatic efforts to secure a sustainable peace agreement.Here’s an article based on the source text:
Analysts Skeptical of Peace Prospects as Putin Likely to Resist Compromise
Despite potential pressure from a new U.S.governance, experts warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unlikely to compromise on his key war objectives in Ukraine, setting the stage for continued conflict.
Former U.S. officials suggest that increased military aid to Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector coudl be leveraged to push Putin toward negotiations. Though, with Russian forces maintaining battlefield advantages and the Russian economy weathering existing sanctions, Moscow shows little inclination to alter its course.
putin’s demands remain extensive, including guarantees against Ukraine joining NATO and implementation of pro-Russian language and cultural policies in ukraine. “Putin has tied his war to achieving this and is unlikely to retreat,” notes Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center.”Instead, he will likely intensify efforts.”
Russia’s call for Ukrainian “demilitarization” extends beyond force reductions, seeking Western assurances against future military support for Kyiv. The Kremlin views any Western military assistance to Ukraine as a hostile act, according to experts.
Constitutional changes incorporating four annexed Ukrainian regions further complicate peace prospects. Political analyst Vladimir Frolov explains that “Moscow believes that a recognition of Russia’s new borders by Ukraine is necessary to preclude the basis for a military revanche.”
The wide gulf between Russian and Ukrainian positions has led many Moscow-based analysts to express pessimism about negotiation prospects. some warn that failed talks,combined with increased Western military support for Ukraine,could risk direct U.S.-Russia confrontation.”They tend to think in the West that Putin will get scared and agree to a ceasefire,” notes one Moscow analyst. “Just the opposite. Putin will likely opt for an escalation and fight fire with fire.”
The situation remains particularly tense in eastern Ukraine, where recent military developments, including reported North Korean troop deployments supporting Russian forces, have further complicated the strategic landscape.
