Kyiv is undergoing a significant leadership reshuffle as Ukraine navigates both an ongoing conflict with Russia and the potential for forthcoming peace negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has enacted a series of personnel changes, culminating in the appointment of Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, as his new Chief of staff on January 2nd[1].These moves, alongside dismissals and nominations across key goverment positions, signal a potential strategic realignment ahead of anticipated talks involving former U.S. president Donald Trump and moscow [[2]].
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has initiated a series of significant personnel changes within key government positions, prompting speculation about the motivations behind the reshuffling as Kyiv navigates ongoing conflict and prepares for potential peace negotiations.
On January 2, President Zelenskyy announced the appointment of Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, as his new Chief of Staff. He replaced Oleh Ivashchenko, a former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. The personnel changes continued on January 4, when Zelenskyy dismissed Serhiy Deyneko as head of the State Border Guard Service, replacing him with Valeriy Vavryniuk, Deyneko’s former deputy, in an acting capacity. Additionally, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov was nominated as the new Defense Minister, while former Minister Denys Shmyhal was offered the positions of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy. The nominations of Fedorov and Shmyhal require confirmation by the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament.
On January 5, Zelenskyy replaced Vasyl Maliuk as head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), appointing Yevhen Hmar, the head of the SBU’s Special Operations Center “A,” as acting head. Maliuk’s removal sparked a strong reaction from high-ranking military officials, who warned that the change in leadership could destabilize the command chain at the front lines and disrupt operational control amidst continued Russian pressure. Several commanders publicly voiced their support for Maliuk – a rare occurrence during wartime, according to The Washington Post. Zelenskyy stated he had suggested Maliuk focus on “combat operations work.” While Maliuk’s new role has not been officially announced, the president clarified he would continue to oversee special operations directed toward Russia within the SBU system. This wave of changes comes ahead of anticipated talks regarding a potential end to the war in Ukraine, according to reports.
Zelenskyy also stated he has no plans to dismiss Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Addressing the personnel changes, Zelenskyy noted that a “restart” is underway within the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, security agencies, the Ministry of Defence, and law enforcement. “There is no consideration of replacing the Commander-in-Chief,” the president told journalists. He added that plans are in place to replace all top officials within the security and law enforcement sectors. Zelenskyy indicated that personnel matters, along with the development of the Armed Forces and the progress of peace negotiations, are currently the government’s top priorities.
A Power Reset Ahead of Potential Peace Talks
Ukraine’s government “restart” is occurring as former U.S. President Donald Trump continues efforts to forge a Ukraine peace plan and end the war, while Kyiv seeks security guarantees from Western allies in bilateral talks with the United States.
Budanov’s military intelligence agency has closely collaborated with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) during his leadership, sources told The Financial Times.
Kyrylo Budanov’s appointment “is a signal that Zelenskyy is genuinely concerned about the course of negotiations with Russia, Ukraine’s military strategy, and security issues, and possibly his own personal security,” Olena Tregub, head of the Independent Anti-Corruption Committee, told The Washington Post. Budanov is one of the few Ukrainian officials who has maintained communication channels with Moscow during the war, including on the issue of prisoner exchanges. A former Trump administration official told the newspaper that Budanov is a good choice by Zelenskyy, as he is respected by various factions within the Trump administration, also highlighting his “unassuming but important role” in potential peace negotiations in early 2025. “He is one of the more reasonable and realistic interlocutors on the issue of ending the war,” the official said.
This development has caused significant concern among Russian ultra-patriots, who view him as an enemy spy responsible for numerous terrorist attacks, sabotage operations, assassinations, and other covert activities.
The Budanov Factor
Following a December 28 phone call between Trump and Putin, Moscow agreed to Washington’s proposal to establish two peace negotiation working groups: one focused on security and ceasefire issues, and the other on Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic matters. “Budanov’s role is becoming crucial. In fact, we are talking about a potential head of the leading negotiating delegation,” wrote the Ukrainian publication Дзеркало тижня. The article does not explicitly state whether this refers to the working groups announced by the Kremlin and the White House. Zelenskyy reportedly spent the past month seeking Budanov’s agreement to the new position, while the intelligence chief reportedly hesitated, sources told the FT. Дзеркало тижня also reported that Zelenskyy made the decision to appoint Budanov only after meeting with Trump on December 28. The choice of a new defense minister also appears deliberate. Fedorov is one of Zelenskyy’s most trusted allies and has been part of the president’s team since 2019.
However, there may be other reasons and connections behind Zelenskyy’s initiated personnel changes.
Дзеркало тижня also noted Budanov’s political rating – he is the fourth most popular politician in Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s decision may be motivated by a desire to neutralize a potential competitor or, conversely, to find a successor if Zelenskyy decides not to run for another term as president, as he recently stated in an interview with Axios.
A former high-ranking Ukrainian official told the Washington Post that Budanov’s appointment signals Zelenskyy’s efforts to find a “powerful candidate” comparable in authority to the position of Vice President of Ukraine. However, the source believes Budanov has the potential to succeed Zelenskyy, unlike Andriy Yermak. “Almost four years after Russia’s invasion, in a time of Ukraine’s political revival, Zelenskyy is forced to be more politically flexible and cautious,” commented The New York Times.
Criticism from Opponents
“Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, who Russia has declared wanted, has never served in the army,” reported the Kremlin-backed propaganda channel ПолитНавигатор, citing a post from Serhiy Krivonos, a former deputy commander of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, on his video blog “Фабрика новостей.”
Krivonos criticized Budanov’s appointment as Chief of Staff, stating: “…it is laughable that Zelenskyy would entrust him with reforming the army (..) First, Budanov has never served a single day in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He has never been a platoon, company, battalion, or regiment commander (..) The unsuccessful and ineffective ‘Dzhankoi operation’ under his leadership in Crimea was presented to the public as a heroic feat. From a professional point of view, we were already laughing when it happened, because it was truly a major failure. But often, failures are presented to the public as heroic deeds. Intelligence requires professionalism, not heroism.” Krivonos also claimed he has no doubt about Budanov’s courage, but “there are many questions about the organization of work in Ukraine’s military intelligence.”
Budanov’s Achievements and the Dzhankoi Operation
Budanov received his education at the Institute of Land Forces of the Odessa Military Academy (2007) and served in special units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence. In 2016, he began training with the CIA, becoming a member of the elite U.S. Central Intelligence Agency unit “2245” and one of the officers in a unit that intercepted Russian drones and communication equipment for CIA specialists to hack the encryption systems of unmanned aerial vehicles, according to The New York Times.
In 2016, a Ukrainian special forces unit carried out a sabotage raid in Crimea, personally led by Kyrylo Budanov, after the Main Intelligence Directorate received information about the redeployment of a large number of Russian combat helicopters to the Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea, reported Ukrainian 24 Канал. Upon arriving in Crimea, the saboteurs were met by a Russian special forces unit. During the fighting, the occupiers suffered losses, including the son of a Russian general. Budanov was wounded. The Ukrainian group then retreated to the coast and sailed for several hours into Ukrainian-controlled waters. In a public address, Putin accused Ukraine of planning a terrorist attack and vowed to avenge the deaths of Russian soldiers. In 2017, the commander of the sabotage unit, Maksym Shapoval, was blown up in Kyiv, and Budanov took over the leadership of the special unit. In 2019, there was also an unsuccessful assassination attempt against him.
“The Ukrainian sabotage group knew that in the event of capture, Russia would torture and kill all participants, so all members of the operation agreed on unprecedented security measures,” said Valeriy Kondratyuk, former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (2020-2021) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (2015-2016). “They agreed among themselves that no one would be taken alive, and for more than four hours returned through the sea lane with grenades in their hands. If the occupiers had tried to capture them, no one would have been taken alive. This was an unprecedented special operation by the Main Intelligence Directorate. (..) The service considered the worst-case scenario, because in intelligence, we always assess the worst. The worst-case scenario was that it was preparation for a Russian airborne operation from low altitude, where our air defense would not be able to identify and shoot down helicopters to prevent the deployment of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory,” explained Valeriy Kondratyuk.
“When Russia annexed Crimea, the peninsula was left without water, and the Kremlin had to find a solution to the water supply. Initially, they hoped for ‘Putin’s friends’ Viktor Medvedchuk. However, the Russian dictator decided to use military force to achieve his goal (..) We tried to anticipate events and be ready if the worst-case scenario materialized (..) Unfortunately, at that time we did not receive Western support, due to the political decision of the administration of US President Barack Obama (..) But this became a challenge for Russia.”
The former head of Ukraine’s military intelligence recalled that the sabotage raid in Crimea shocked the Kremlin. Ultimately, Russia was convinced that it controlled Ukraine’s law enforcement agencies and intelligence services. “This was a shock and a challenge for the Kremlin. Because they realized how quickly everything was changing, how successfully and quickly we were able to improve the work of Ukraine’s intelligence service. I consider this to be one of the most important results of that time,” Kondratyuk added.
Yermak’s Shadow
Zelenskyy’s office was previously headed by Andriy Yermak, who resigned on November 28 following a corruption scandal. The decision to appoint Budanov was made despite speculation and rumors about Yermak’s significant political influence, such as the claim that he continued to run the country by phone after his dismissal, with Zelenskyy delegating the functions of the President’s Office to the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, leaving the office responsible only for organizational matters. The rumors did not materialize, and several leading officials from “Yermak’s power hierarchy” were dismissed before the New Year, including Ruslan Magomedov – the head of Ukraine’s National Securities and Stock Market Commission, the financial sector regulator. Therefore, the choice of Budanov should be viewed in the context of peace talks. Perhaps that is why Zelenskyy did not choose Mykhailo Fedorov, the former Minister of Digital Transformation and newly appointed Ukrainian Defense Minister, who would have focused on domestic political issues, which are not particularly relevant to Ukraine at this time.
Budanov was chosen as the head of the President’s Office and also as the head of Ukraine’s negotiating delegation. This happened thanks to his connections in the United States, comments the Telegram channel “artjockey”. Budanov has influential political connections in the US, where he is considered “one of their own, a trusted person.” Over the past year and a half, Budanov has been in open conflict with Yermak. He was virtually the only person with direct access to Zelenskyy, expressing an alternative viewpoint to the Ukrainian president, while Yermak was unable to control him. Yermak suspected Budanov of ordering a campaign of biased articles in Western media. There were even rumors that Yermak repeatedly tried to remove Budanov from office, but was apparently helped by the White House’s patronage.
It is unknown whether Budanov will pursue his own agenda or operate strictly within the framework set by Zelenskyy during the peace negotiations. His vision is certainly different from Yermak’s – even if Budanov does not promote his position as head of the delegation, he is able to influence President Zelenskyy’s opinion. Budanov is better informed about the real situation at the front than Yermak and, likely, no worse than Zaluzhnyi. His appointment strengthens Ukraine’s position, while Yermak was viewed very negatively and with great distrust by Trump’s advisors, while Budanov was considered “one of their own.”
