Analysis of recent developments indicates ukraine faces a severe personnel shortage amid ongoing military operations, with estimates of around 200,000 soldiers deserting or avoiding mobilization as the start of 2024. This crisis has prompted discussions among military officials and experts about the potential impact on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defenses, especially as Russian forces press forward near Vovchansk and southeast of Kostiantynivka.The situation underscores the broader challenges Ukraine’s armed forces confront in maintaining troop numbers and morale in a prolonged conflict.
- A platoon leader, tank commander, and rank-and-file soldier describe losing the will to continue fighting.
- Russian forces are advancing near Vovchansk.
- Fighting is concentrated southeast of Kostiantynivka.
- Russia has likely used Shahed drones equipped with Starlink for the first time, reportedly striking Ukrainian helicopters.
- Maps of the day – Vovchansk, Kostiantynivka
- Videos of the day – Russian drones attacking Ukrainian helicopters; Kyiv residents celebrate restored electricity; a look at the work of Ukrainian energy workers; a Russian drone crashes into a residential building in Kharkiv.
The following information summarizes events from Sunday, January 25. The situation may have changed since then.
A platoon leader, tank commander, and rank-and-file soldier describe losing the will to continue fighting. Ukraine’s newly appointed Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, announced during his first address in office that approximately 200,000 soldiers have deserted their posts, and two million men are avoiding mobilization. Regarding those who have left their units after being mobilized, there are two categories: desertion and unauthorized absence. The first group consists of those who go into hiding and attempt to avoid returning to the front lines altogether. The second group includes soldiers willing to fight, but in different units. For the purposes of this report, both categories will be referred to as deserters, as the outcome is the same – a shortage of personnel on the front lines.
The scale of this issue is significant; even a return of half of the deserters would substantially alleviate the army’s manpower problems.
Lieutenant Colonel Kyrylo Berkal of the 3rd Army Corps told Kyiv Independent that if combat-ready soldiers were to return, Ukraine would once again be capable of launching a counteroffensive.
A one-time amnesty offered in 2024 failed to significantly address the problem. Soldiers who returned to their units were treated as if no offense had occurred, but over 29,000 people took advantage of the offer.
The Kyiv Independent investigated the reasons behind this growing crisis, speaking with numerous soldiers and experts. The most compelling insights came from interviews with deserters from various locations and military units.
Yaroslav. One such individual is 33-year-old Yaroslav, who suffers from panic attacks. Before deserting, he served as a platoon leader. He enlisted in the army in 2015, making him a seasoned non-commissioned officer who, under normal circumstances, would be a pillar of support for soldiers on the front lines. He described his reason for deserting as…
