ukraine is recalibrating its relationship with Belarus, a move prompted by Minsk’s support for Russia’s invasion and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Kyiv is now openly engaging with Belarusian opposition figures, a significant departure from past policy, while also signaling a willingness to hold Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko accountable for his government’s actions. this shift, analyzed by researchers at the Hungarian institute of International Affairs, is unfolding against a backdrop of diverging U.S. and European strategies toward Belarus and a potential change in U.S.governance.
A shift in Ukraine’s approach to its neighbor Belarus is underway, marked by a willingness to engage with opposition figures and a more critical stance towards the current Minsk government. This change in policy comes as regional dynamics are reshaped by the ongoing war in Ukraine and evolving relationships between key global powers.
Researchers Sándor Seremet and Angelina Zsófia Nagy of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs have outlined the evolving relationship between Ukraine and Belarus. For much of their independent histories, the two countries maintained a pragmatic coexistence, with Kyiv not viewing Minsk as a strategic adversary. That relationship saw a period of stabilization in 2014 during the conflict in eastern Ukraine, due to Belarus’s role as a mediator. However, the balance shifted following political developments in Belarus after 2020.
The true breaking point arrived with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Belarus’s decision to allow Russian forces to use its territory for military operations led Kyiv to consider Minsk a co-aggressor, even though Belarusian regular troops did not directly participate in the fighting. The researchers noted that certain technical and humanitarian channels remained open, preventing a complete breakdown in relations.
Zelenskyy Signals a Policy Shift: A Break from Past Caution
According to Sándor Seremet, a leading researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s January meeting with Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was a deliberate political statement. During the meeting, Zelenskyy made it clear that Kyiv intends to cooperate with democratic forces in Belarus and does not rule out holding President Alexander Lukashenko accountable for his actions.
Zelenskyy’s public statements – which directly addressed the political situation within Belarus – were unusually strong and signaled Ukraine’s desire for a moral and political distance from the Minsk leadership. As part of this shift, the Ukrainian president invited Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv and indicated he was considering appointing a special envoy to coordinate contacts with the Belarusian opposition.
Seremet assessed that this represents a significant change in Ukraine’s Belarus policy, which had previously consistently avoided open confrontation. He recalled that this shift in perspective was later confirmed by the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, who spoke of “recalibrating” the bilateral relationship and identified Belarusian democratic forces as key players.
The Kyiv position aligns with the European Union’s approach, but in the United States – particularly following the potential inauguration of Donald Trump – this direction is facing increasing criticism.
– stated the leading researcher.
Ukrainian President Challenges Washington
Angelina Zsófia Nagy believes that Ukraine’s evolving policy towards Belarus is inseparable from the changing dynamics of U.S.-Belarusian relations. The researcher pointed out that Donald Trump’s potential return to office has significantly redrawn the regional landscape, as Washington is adopting a different approach to both the war and its relationship with Minsk than the previous U.S. administration.
According to her assessment, the new U.S. administration is approaching Belarus from a strategic rather than a normative perspective, considering regional power dynamics, its political and logistical transit role, and the broader U.S.-Russia relationship. This thinking is based on the premise that previous Western pressure tactics have not yielded the desired results – failing to promote either Belarus’s democratic transformation or its distancing from Moscow, while Western influence has waned and given way to a stronger Russian and Chinese presence.
As a result, stabilization of bilateral relations has become a priority in Washington. Nagy Zsófia recalled:
Minsk recognized the opportunity presented by the shift in Washington’s approach and initiated a cautious opening to the West, including the release of political prisoners and a partial resumption of economic and diplomatic contacts.
The researcher said the U.S. side has responded to this opening, with normalization leading to tangible steps, including more intensive diplomatic engagement, the release of several hundred political prisoners by the Belarusian side, and the easing of some sanctions by Washington, including relaxing restrictions on the export of Belarusian potash – a key commodity for the Belarusian economy.
Europe, however, continues to pursue a fundamentally different strategy. Nagy Angelina Zsófia emphasized that the European approach is based on sanctions, political isolation, and support for opposition forces, in the hope that this will eventually weaken the Lukashenko regime and reduce the country’s dependence on Russia.
The researcher noted that by considering the Minsk leadership illegitimate and recognizing the opposition in exile – led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – as its official partner, Brussels is precluding the possibility of meaningful dialogue, which represents an insurmountable barrier for Minsk.
She added:
the United States’ gradual departure from this approach undermines the European strategy of isolation and creates significant tensions within EU decision-making.
Lukashenko’s appearances at international forums may further ease his diplomatic isolation, which is particularly sensitive for the European position. In this context, Ukraine’s policy shift and open opposition to U.S. ideas become decisive: Volodymyr Zelenskyy is able to delay or hinder the realization of concrete results of U.S. normalization – such as the resumption of Belarusian fertilizer exports – through political and practical means.
Zelenskyy Seeks Support Among Trump’s Opponents
Responding to the question of whether relations between Ukraine and Belarus could escalate into a more acute confrontation, Sándor Seremet, a leading researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, said that such a direction would strategically offer only meager gains and would pose significant risks for Ukraine.
He believes that further deterioration of relations would jeopardize the functioning of the still-operational humanitarian and technical cooperation channels, while there is also a real risk that Minsk, feeling constrained, could become more actively involved in the conflict. This would not only change the military dynamics of the war but also have serious political consequences for Kyiv. Both Minsk and Kyiv have methodically sought to avoid this so far. Minsk has not yet officially reacted to Zelenskyy’s moves, which suggests composure and indicates a lack of interest in escalation.
Similar to his colleague, the leading researcher pointed out:
a move towards a deepening political conflict would sharply contradict the United States’ current, more pragmatic Belarus policy.
Initiating legal proceedings against the Belarusian head of state would further narrow Washington’s room for maneuver and significantly hinder U.S. mediation and de-escalation efforts regarding the war in Ukraine.
Seremet concluded that Volodymyr Zelenskyy may in the future rely on the political strategy he has used in the past: attempting to find allies along the lines of power struggles within the United States, primarily among Donald Trump’s political opponents. The researcher also recalled that the Ukrainian president’s similar calculations during the 2024 U.S. presidential election period did not yield the expected results.
