Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine, according to intelligence assessments. The conflict continues to draw international attention as it enters its third year, with implications for global security and energy markets.
“He is convinced that even if it takes 18 months or two years to fully establish control over Donbas, every day and every night of fighting, every Russian missile and drone strike on energy infrastructure and residential buildings, gives him more and more advantages,” the report states.
Recent months have seen Russia’s economy face significant challenges, coinciding with proposals from former U.S. President Donald Trump for substantial investment in Russia in exchange for a potential end to the war.
Analysts suggest Putin may still be open to a deal to halt the war in Ukraine, particularly if he can secure broad rapprochement with the United States and a withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the remaining parts of Donbas.
Donbas, encompassing the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, remains a key point of contention in negotiations.
Russia has fully occupied the Luhansk region, whereas Ukrainian forces continue to control portions of the Donetsk region, including well-fortified cities.
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The Kremlin is demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remaining un-occupied areas of the Donetsk region, a demand Kyiv has consistently rejected. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Donbas will not be ceded to occupying forces.
Zelenskyy has also emphasized that a full military occupation of Donbas would cost the Kremlin approximately 800,000 soldiers and accept around two years, a timeframe he believes the Russian economy could not withstand.
Some analysts believe Russia’s objective in seizing Donbas is to provide a tangible “trophy” to present to the Russian public.
