El Mencho: Death, CJNG Future & Mexico Violence – Latest Updates

Mexican authorities have confirmed the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in a military operation on February 24, 2026. The operation, which took place in Tapalpa, Jalisco, involved a fierce firefight with cartel gunmen and resulted in multiple fatalities on both sides. The death of El Mencho, long sought by both Mexican, and U.S. Authorities, represents a significant blow to one of Mexico’s most powerful and violent criminal organizations.

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According to Defense Secretary Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, the location of El Mencho was pinpointed after authorities tracked one of his romantic partners. She was present at the property in Tapalpa and left the day before the raid.

The intervention involved air support from helicopters and airplanes, with forces from the Army and National Guard converging on the residence. Upon detecting the military presence, armed cartel members responded with a “very violent” attack, leaving eight suspected criminals dead and three soldiers wounded.

Following the initial clash, El Mencho fled into a wooded area, where a second exchange of gunfire occurred. During this second confrontation, a military helicopter was struck and forced to produce an emergency landing.

The CJNG leader was injured during the fighting and taken into custody, but succumbed to his injuries while being transported by military aircraft to a hospital in Morelia.

In the wake of his death, widespread violence erupted across Mexico, including road blockades, vehicle fires, and shootings targeting businesses and public buildings in 20 states. At least 25 members of the National Guard and 30 suspected criminals were killed in the ensuing unrest.

The implications of El Mencho’s death for the CJNG, considered Mexico’s most powerful and violent cartel, were discussed with international affairs analyst Francesco Tucci, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Peruvian University of Applied Sciences (UPC).

“What does the death of El Mencho really mean for the structure of the CJNG, considered the strongest criminal group in Mexico?”

“El Mencho’s death significantly weakens the CJNG’s pyramidal structure, the most powerful cartel in Mexico with a presence in 24 states, as its centralized leadership depended on his charismatic and operational figure,” Tucci explained. “Without a clear family heir—his son ‘El Menchito’ is imprisoned—the group could fragment into autonomous cells, like local franchises. This doesn’t dismantle it immediately, but exposes vulnerabilities in its aggressive expansion of drug trafficking, extortion, and fentanyl operations.”

“Does the CJNG lose real capacity after the fall of its leader, or did it believe it was already prepared for an internal transition?”

“The CJNG doesn’t lose immediate capacity, as it already showed preparation for transitions with operational leaders like ‘El 03’ (Valencia González), Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (‘El Sapo’), or Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (‘El Doeble R’), backed by El Mencho’s family,” Tucci said. “Its ‘franchise’ model allows for continuity in key plazas like ports and precursor chemical routes. However, the absence of a unified command could reduce its cohesion in the medium term.”

“Is an internal war for succession within the CJNG coming? Could it suffer the same fate as the Sinaloa Cartel after the fall of El Chapo Guzmán?”

“There is a high risk of an internal war for succession, similar to the Sinaloa Cartel after El Chapo’s fall in 2016, where factions like the Chapitos vs. The Mayos generated fragmentation and violence,” Tucci warned. “What we have is the worst-case scenario considered by specialists due to the violence it would generate: potential contenders like ‘El Sapo’ (with family backing) and ‘El Jardinero’ could clash for control in Jalisco and Colima, dissolving the central command into rival groups. The recent wave of blockades and vehicle fires following El Mencho’s death indicates initial tensions.”

“What risks exist that other criminal groups will take advantage of this vacuum to dispute strategic territories?”

“Other groups, such as remnants of the Sinaloa Cartel (the Mayos or Chapitos), United Cartels, or local groups in Michoacán and Guerrero, could dispute strategic territories like Manzanillo (for precursor chemicals) and fentanyl routes,” Tucci explained. “The CJNG already took advantage of the Sinaloa war in 2024-2025; now, its vacuum invites counterattacks in Guanajuato, Zacatecas, and the Pacific. This could generate unexpected tactical alliances or escalations in disputed plazas.”

“Does this strike strengthen the Mexican government’s security strategy or could it generate a backlash with more violence in the short term?”

“The elimination of El Mencho appears to strengthen the Mexican security strategy by removing a key target for the U.S., with binational cooperation delivering the operation,” Tucci stated. “However, it generates an immediate backlash with violence: blockades, fires, and transportation suspensions in multiple states. The cartel could collapse, facilitating the formation of small factions involved in conflicts to control territory and market.”

“What signals should the Mexican state observe in the coming weeks to anticipate an escalation of violence?”

“The Mexican state should anticipate recurring road blockades, vehicle fires, and narco ‘red codes’ in Jalisco, Michoacán, and Guanajuato,” Tucci advised. “Other alerts to watch for include an increase in selective homicides against CJNG operators, disputes in key plazas via drones (signals intelligence – SIGINT), and spikes in seizures of precursors at ports. Internal betrayals or alliances with Sinaloa rivals would indicate violent fragmentation.”

“Does the death of El Mencho change the political narrative between the White House and the Mexican government regarding the fight against drug trafficking and fentanyl trafficking?”

“Yes, it is likely to change the narrative: El Mencho was a key target for the White House due to fentanyl, and his death validates Trump’s pressure on Mexico for ‘additional efforts’ in 2026. It reduces tensions by showing concrete results of shared intelligence, strengthening the joint fight against drug trafficking. However, the physical elimination of a leader does not automatically mean the cartel’s fall and can generate adverse effects such as fragmentation and a violent struggle for power.”

“Could this event be a turning point for a rapprochement between the presidents of Mexico and the United States?”

“This event could be a turning point for a rapprochement between the presidents of Claudia Sheinbaum and Donald Trump, offering Mexico a triumph in response to demands for direct intervention. It facilitates dialogue on extraditions and financial blockades against the CJNG, mitigating threats of ‘serious consequences’ for the entry of fentanyl into the United States. Joint statements from the leaders in the coming weeks could confirm this possible rapprochement.”