Global financial markets experienced a sharp downturn on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, as anxieties deepened following the U.S. And Israeli military operation against Iran. Investors are pricing in the potential for a prolonged crisis and escalating energy prices, resulting in widespread losses across most asset classes. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of global markets and the sensitivity to geopolitical risk.
In Spain, the Ibex 35 plummeted 4.55% in its largest single-day decline since the imposition of tariffs by Donald Trump eleven months prior, briefly falling below 17,000 points. All components of the index experienced losses, with the exception of Repsol, which saw a 3.29% increase. The declines were mirrored globally, particularly in economies heavily reliant on Persian Gulf hydrocarbons, including Europe and Asia. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 4%, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi indices declined by 3% and 7%, respectively. In the United States, the S&P 500, which managed to close in positive territory on Monday, experienced a drop of approximately 1.7%, similar to the Nasdaq.
With no clear path to de-escalation, concerns surrounding energy supplies are focused on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes. Iranian officials have threatened to attack any vessel attempting to transit the strait, while Qatar has suspended operations at its liquefied natural gas plant, which accounts for 20% of global maritime supply. oil prices surged by 7%, mirroring the previous day’s gains. Brent crude, the European benchmark, exceeded $83 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2024. Natural gas prices too accelerated their upward trajectory in European markets, rising 22% on Tuesday after a 40% increase on Monday, reaching a record high of €56 per megawatt-hour – nearly double the price from two days prior.
Echoes of 2022 and the Day of Liberation
Sustained energy price increases would represent a double shock to economies, fueling inflation and hindering growth. Market participants have scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, adding to existing market instability. The perceived scarcity of energy is also impacting freight rates for tankers and liquefied natural gas carriers. The duration of the conflict remains the key uncertainty, but optimism is limited, as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “the hardest blows are yet to come from the U.S. Military.” Iran has also demonstrated its ability to disrupt the global energy industry for weeks with its relatively inexpensive drone technology.
investors are engaging in widespread asset sales. Within the Ibex 35, Acciona (-11.8%), Solaria (-10.5%), and Acerinox (-9.5%) experienced the largest declines. Significant drops were widespread, with Banco Santander falling 6.2%, Naturgy declining 7.4% following a recent sale of 11.4% of its capital for €2.791 billion at a 56% discount, Cellnex dropping 6.5%, and IAG falling 7.2%.
Even gold prices have declined, falling more than 3%, as its traditional safe-haven status has been undermined by the indiscriminate selling pressure. Silver prices plummeted 9%. The euro depreciated below $1.16, reaching its lowest level since November, due to Europe’s energy dependence, a vulnerability the United States does not share.
The potential for sustained higher energy prices is reminiscent of the conditions seen in 2022 and during the “Day of Liberation” – the trade war initiated by Donald Trump eleven months ago – representing a challenging environment for global debt markets. The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond increased by 10 basis points, the German yield by eight, and the U.S. Yield by five, resulting in losses for debt portfolios as yields move inversely to prices. Pedro del Pozo, chief financial investment officer at Mutualidad, noted that “as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, pressure on the markets will continue,” emphasizing the geopolitical and financial importance of the waterway.
Analysts are assessing potential scenarios and their market implications. Karsten Junius, chief economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, suggests that, in a worst-case scenario – a prolonged conflict – regional energy infrastructure would be damaged. “This would drive oil prices above $100 per barrel for months, pushing multiple economies into recession and causing more persistent inflation. Gold could reach $6,000, and equities would likely fall by at least 15%,” he estimates. In a more optimistic scenario, a swift resolution leading to the collapse of the Iranian regime could quickly reverse the current market turmoil.
However, the most likely scenario, according to Junius, involves a relatively short and decisive campaign, resulting in oil price stabilization around $75 per barrel, a temporary increase in overall inflation of 0.5 percentage points, and a modest impact on economic growth. Beyond potential scenarios, the conflict presents multiple complexities. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, as noted by geologist Joan Escuer of Carlemany University, the world is forced to rely on lower-quality and more technically challenging oil reserves, increasing the floor price of crude. Regardless of the specific outcomes and their probabilities, all analysts agree that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of the Iranian regime will be the defining factors for both the real economy and financial markets.
Bolsas – Divisas – Deuda – Tipos de interés – Materias primas
