Historically, global unrest has benefited incumbent Swedish governments.
But developments in Iran could present significant challenges for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson as the autumn election season approaches.
The recent unrest in the Middle East carries implications beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis, potentially impacting the political landscape in Sweden.
Of course, there are more important aspects to the recent events in the Middle East than their potential domestic political consequences in a small Northern European country.
For example, the consequences of attacks by the U.S. And Israel on Iran’s population, a population that has suffered greatly for decades under a brutal dictatorship and is now forced to seek shelter from falling bombs.
That said, the world is interconnected, and even if a butterfly flapping its wings in Africa doesn’t cause an earthquake in Asia, rapidly rising global oil prices, for example, can have economic repercussions in Sweden.
And Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson may be able to say he “spoke with French President Macron earlier today” and try to project statesmanship and importance.
That could prove important as the Swedish people head to the polls this fall.
In tough times, as dark clouds gather, people tend to favor the incumbent government; voters want security, they know what they have, they don’t really know what they’ll get if they change it.
In modern times in Sweden, it’s very difficult to win three elections in a row. In fact, it has only happened twice, following the assassination of Olof Palme and on the other side, the burning skyscrapers of Manhattan.
But that was then, and now is now, and the time when the world was shaken by a crisis every 20 years is over.
Now they approach and go almost constantly: pandemic, Ukraine, Gaza, Trump’s tariff threats… it just goes on and on and on, and voters no longer reward the incumbent government in the same way when it shakes up.
The fact that Kristersson struggled in “Aktuellt” last night, as usual, to offer any criticism of the ancient, blond man in the White House will hardly show up in the next opinion poll.
Experts agree that the attacks on Iran violate international conventions, but the prime minister mumbled something about “traditional international law,” whatever he meant by that.
We’ve gotten used to that. Whether the Swedish government is wisely cautious or contemptibly cowardly is a matter of perspective, but it’s noteworthy that the only time Kristersson had a clear opinion on Trump’s international policy was during the Greenland crisis.
