Madrid, March 9, 2026 – The Euribor rate is experiencing a sustained climb amid escalating tensions stemming from the conflict in Iran, reaching its highest level in nearly a year. This surge is raising concerns about the potential impact on variable-rate mortgages across Spain and beyond.
The indicator has risen to 2.2296% on a monthly average, according to reports. This translates to a modest savings of approximately eight euros per month for the owner of a typical 150,000 euro mortgage with a 25-year term and a 1% differential, assuming a yearly review. Although, those with semi-annual reviews could observe their monthly payments increase by 9.8 euros.
The increase in the Euribor is largely attributed to fears that the European Central Bank (ECB) may be compelled to raise interest rates. Prior to the recent hostilities in Iran, expectations were that the ECB, under President Christine Lagarde, would maintain rates at 2% or potentially lower them, given controlled inflation. The current situation, however, has dramatically altered that outlook.
The conflict has effectively put a halt to what some analysts termed a “mortgage war,” where banks were offering increasingly competitive rates. Banks are now revising their offers and reassessing their policies in light of the heightened uncertainty, potentially leading to more expensive home loans.
In just one week, the Euribor has increased by 10 basis points to 2.3%. The future Euribor rate for three months, a key benchmark for medium- and long-term market expectations, has seen an even more significant shift. Forecasts for the end of the year have moved from below 2% to nearly 2.5%, with projections reaching 2.6% for December 2027 and 2.7% for 2028. This half-percentage-point increase could add 20,000 euros in interest over the life of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of 200,000 euros.
The rising Euribor comes as the price of oil and gas have too seen significant increases. The situation is impacting both military capabilities and industrial capacity in Iran, as well as the broader economic forecasts.
Banks have also experienced a downturn in the stock market, reminding investors of the inherent uncertainty in the current global landscape. The interconnectedness of the global economy means that developments in the Middle East have far-reaching financial consequences.
The Euribor has climbed to a daily rate of 2.367%, the highest it has been in almost a year.
