The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, raising concerns about prolonged economic disruption. This strategic chokepoint handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply, and the closure is prompting the United States to seek assistance in reopening it.
President Donald Trump has been pressing allies for support over the past several days, varying his tone in appeals to nations heavily reliant on Gulf oil. He initially reached out to Japan, a key U.S. Ally, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has indicated that Tokyo will instead draw upon its existing oil reserves rather than participate in a maritime security operation. South Korea is currently considering its options, potentially hesitant to become embroiled in a conflict with Iran while also navigating China’s growing regional influence.
Visit to Beijing in Doubt
Trump is also seeking support from China, which imports 90% of its oil from the Persian Gulf. Beijing has thus far favored a diplomatic approach, hoping to negotiate safe passage for its tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. However, China maintains a partnership with Iran and is unlikely to join an international coalition aimed at pressuring Tehran, particularly in a conflict it did not initiate. A planned late-March meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump is now uncertain, with China delaying confirmation. Trump’s claim that he requested a one-month postponement should therefore be viewed with caution.
Evolving Objectives
With European allies, particularly within NATO, Trump has adopted a more confrontational approach. “NATO risks a very bad future if its members do not help the United States,” the U.S. President stated. However, this rhetoric is consistent with Trump’s longstanding criticism of the alliance, and NATO members have largely adjusted to his repeated questioning of its value. German officials have pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East does not fall within NATO’s purview, and have publicly questioned when the United States and Israel will achieve their objectives – a question complicated by the fact that those objectives appear to be shifting.
Iranian Leverage
European nations have been slow to respond to the U.S. Call for assistance, with many reluctant to be publicly threatened or admonished. This has been the case with both Great Britain and Spain since the beginning of the conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron received a rating of “8 out of 10” from Trump on March 16, a surprisingly positive assessment given the U.S. President’s tendency to present things favorably. Any European mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on a de-escalation of the current high-intensity conflict, which remains distant. Iran retains significant leverage, including the potential to activate Houthi militias in Yemen, who have not yet directly entered the war.
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