Public support for military action tends to rally around governments during times of conflict. This pattern held true in the United States during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, with polls showing 70 to 80 percent approval. A similar surge in support, reaching 90 percent, followed the start of the war in Afghanistan in 2001.
Even the 2003 invasion of Iraq initially garnered support from roughly two-thirds of Americans. But, public sentiment began to shift around 2005, as it became clear that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein did not possess the weapons of mass destruction that had been alleged.
Uncertainty and Pessimism
President Donald Trump’s stance toward Iran is already facing public disapproval. According to an average of all polls compiled by realclearpolitics.com, 48.8 percent of Americans oppose military action against Iran, while 44.1 percent support it.
The public mood remains volatile, however. Five of seven major polling institutions show a double-digit gap between those who support and oppose military action. Quinnipiac University’s poll reveals a 53 percent to 40 percent split against intervention, while Reuters-Ipsos shows 43 percent opposing and 29 percent supporting.
the prevailing sentiment is one of uncertainty and pessimism. A Fox News survey of registered voters showed a 50-50 split on whether the U.S. Is on the right track regarding war with Iran, but a separate question revealed that 51 percent believe Trump’s policies have made the U.S. less safe, compared to 29 percent who say they have made the country safer (19 percent said there was no difference).
This suggests that even some supporters of the president and the potential for military action harbor doubts about its long-term consequences, with many fearing it could be counterproductive.
In the Fox News poll, 61 percent of respondents said Iran poses a “real threat to national security.” However, when asked if Iran constitutes an “immediate military threat” to the U.S., the response shifted significantly, with 55 percent saying “no” and 39 percent saying “yes.”
These somewhat contradictory poll results may be linked to the level of public attention the issue is receiving. According to Reuters, just over half of Americans have heard “a lot” about the possibility of war with Iran, while nearly half have heard “a little” or nothing at all.
Only 17 Percent of Those Under 35 Support Israel
Shifting attitudes are also apparent on other key foreign policy issues. A recent NBC News poll shows American sympathies are fairly evenly divided between Israel and the Palestinians. However, two-thirds of Democrats (67 percent) side with the Palestinians, while only 17 percent support Israel. A slight majority view Israel unfavorably.
Among young registered voters – those under 35 – these preferences are even more pronounced across party lines. Nearly two-thirds view Israel negatively, while 60 percent say they sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis.
Looking at immigration policy, Trump won 48 percent of the Latino vote last year. However, his hardline deportation policies have caused his approval rating among Latinos to plummet to 22 percent. This shift could have significant negative consequences for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
According to the Economist, the Democrats’ chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives have risen from 69 percent to 85 percent. Their odds of securing a majority in the Senate, where only a third of the seats are up for election, have increased from 29 percent to 47 percent.
These are snapshots of a political mood that could shift at any moment.
Should the regime in Tehran – or in Havana, Cuba – be overthrown in the near future, Trump and the Republicans could suddenly be seen as heroes by many American voters.
