A strong El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about potential global weather impacts. While the phenomenon is well-known for its far-reaching effects, its influence on Switzerland is expected to be minimal.
Both the American weather service (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are reporting an increasing probability of an “El Niño” developing over the course of the summer of 2026. While sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are currently slightly cooler due to a recent weak “La Niña” event, that pattern is gradually ending and its counterpart, “El Niño,” is expected to gain momentum with an 80% probability by autumn. The developing El Niño could be particularly strong.
Will El Niño Affect Switzerland?
While there are remote connections between El Niño and Europe, they are extremely weakly expressed. The answer is no. Though, El Niño does have a significant impact on the temperature of our planet. The widespread warming of the water surface in the central and eastern Pacific releases an enormous amount of heat, making the globe warmer overall. This does not necessarily indicate that Switzerland will experience warmer temperatures as a result of El Niño; the prevailing weather situation over Europe is the determining factor. Its counterpart, La Niña – with the pronounced cold water body off the west coast of South America and the warm water body near Indonesia – also influences weather, and climate. Changes in the climate pattern over the Pacific lead to worldwide remote effects, including droughts, floods, and the suppression or intensification of tropical cyclones.
What Do ‘El Niño’ and ‘La Niña’ Mean?
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO.” It involves an “atmospheric seesaw” between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (an island in the South Pacific). The pattern shifts irregularly every two to seven years, bringing predictable changes in sea temperatures and disrupting normal wind and rainfall patterns in the tropics. These changes in the seasonal climate of the world’s largest ocean have global consequences.
ENOSO-Phenomenon
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Image 1 of 2. El Niño refers to the unusual warming of the surface water in the central-eastern Pacific, which is accompanied by a reversal of the normal air circulation. The trade winds subside. (Orange: warmer than normal, Blue: cooler than normal, Brown: dry sinking air). Image source: NOAA Climate.gov.
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Image 2 of 2. La Niña refers to the unusual cooling of the surface water in the eastern Pacific, which strengthens the normal air circulation. The trade winds increase. (Orange: warmer than normal, Blue: cooler than normal, Brown: dry sinking air). Image source: NOAA Climate.gov.
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