Washington reaccionó con medidas inéditas: licencias temporales para petróleo ruso e iraní, apertura a inversiones en Venezuela y liberación de reservas estratégicas, todo para enfriar precios en estaciones de servicio.
Foto: EFE – SHAWN THEW / POOL
Resume e infórmame rápido
Escucha este artículo
Audio generado con IA de Google
The global oil market is experiencing a period of significant upheaval, with prices surging in recent weeks due to escalating geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.
Brent crude has climbed from $61 in January to over $112 this week, reaching levels not seen since 2022. The primary driver is the conflict in Iran, coupled with attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global crude oil transit, handling approximately 20% of worldwide supply.
The impact quickly spread to the United States, where gasoline prices rose from $3.01 to $3.72 per gallon in just two weeks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Diesel prices are now approaching $5 per gallon. These increases represent a substantial jump by U.S. Standards and are particularly sensitive given recent expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Economy had been showing signs of stabilization, with inflation cooling and consumer spending remaining steady. However, the recent surge in energy prices is threatening to derail that progress, particularly as the Federal Reserve recently decided to hold its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
The Fed acknowledged that “the implications of events in the Middle East for the U.S. Economy are uncertain,” a warning issued as markets closely monitored energy price increases and their potential impact on the cost of living.
“In the short term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation,” stated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
February inflation registered at 2.4% annually, according to a recent report, with a 0.3% increase month-over-month following a 0.2% rise in January. Even as seemingly manageable, this figure is now overshadowed by the rising cost of energy. Energy costs already showed a 0.5% monthly increase, while food prices remained at 3.1%.
Oil prices have a cascading effect on transportation, industrial costs, and logistics. The full impact won’t be immediately apparent, but This proves expected to filter through the economy.
In response, Washington took unprecedented action. First, it temporarily eased restrictions on Russian oil, authorizing the release of approximately 130 million barrels currently held in reserve. Days later, it moved to do the same with Iran, potentially releasing another 140 million barrels.
The administration also accelerated approvals for investments in Venezuela to boost crude oil production for direct export to the U.S.—a shift in policy given previous tensions with the country. The priority has shifted, with energy security taking precedence.
The U.S. Also tapped into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, coordinating additional releases with G7 countries and implementing measures to expedite the transportation of fuels. It is even considering relaxing maritime regulations to facilitate faster movement of energy between ports.
However, these measures do not address the root cause of the problem. The market remains focused on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing attacks, and any signs of escalation.
The surge in Brent crude during March was among the most volatile in recent years. It rose from approximately $71 at the end of February to nearly $96 on March 6, surpassing $100 on March 12, and reaching $111 on March 18 following further attacks on energy assets.
Fifteen days.
This rapid increase has surpassed earlier projections. The International Monetary Fund had previously forecast an average oil price of $65.8 per barrel for 2026. Now, a floor of $85 to $90 appears more likely, with spikes above $110 whenever tensions rise. Saudi Arabia estimates prices could climb further, to $180 per barrel by mid-May.
Colombia projected a significantly lower Brent price in its Financial Plan—just $59—while Fedesarrollo raised its estimate to $79.
The volatility in crude oil prices underscores a market lacking clear anchors.
The Federal Reserve finds itself in a demanding position. Before this episode, the market anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2026. That expectation has now diminished, with some uncertainty remaining.
“It is too early to determine the magnitude and duration of the potential effects (of the conflict) on the economy,” Powell indicated.
The dilemma is well-known, but it has arrived more quickly than anticipated. If energy prices continue to rise, lowering rates becomes risky. Maintaining high rates, however, could cool the economy at a time when growth is already slowing—the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised to 0.7%.
Some analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, predict higher inflation, slower economic growth, and a potential weakening of the labor market later this year.
As such, gasoline prices in the U.S. Have become a key indicator. Each increase is felt in real-time and has a direct impact on public perception of the current administration. A political front and center.
This explains the “about-faces” regarding sanctions relief, reserve releases, and opening up production even in countries with which You’ll see open disagreements. The priority has shifted, and energy security has become paramount.
💰📈💱 Stay informed about the latest economic news. Visit El Espectador.
