U.S. Financial markets have weathered wars, inflation, and banking turmoil in recent years without major panic. However, this time, a single online analytical report was enough to send shares of several major companies tumbling.
Citrini Research published a scenario outlining a future where artificial intelligence fundamentally changes how the economy functions. This wasn’t a scientific study or official forecast, but rather a thought experiment published on the Substack platform, where analysts and experts write their own commentary directly for readers. The report quickly gained traction, sparking a sell-off in tech and financial stocks.
As noted by The Guardian, the authors emphasized that it was “a scenario, not a prediction.” Nevertheless, it rattled investors.
Following its widespread circulation, shares of companies like Uber, Mastercard, and American Express lost several percentage points of their value. The concern centered on a question: what if artificial intelligence doesn’t simply accelerate the economy, but gradually dismantles it?
According to Citrini Research, autonomous AI agents could eliminate a significant portion of today’s intermediaries. A digital assistant could search for the cheapest services, process purchases, and handle payments on behalf of an individual, bypassing applications and platforms that currently profit from commissions. The logic is that a machine isn’t driven by brand loyalty, only by the most efficient solution.
However, the scenario’s most significant concern lies in the labor market. While technology has historically disrupted jobs, it has likewise created new ones. The authors argue that AI may be the first to replace professions people typically transition *into*—office, analytical, and creative work. Fewer jobs translate to lower incomes, weaker consumer spending, and companies investing even more in automation instead of people, creating a “feedback loop with no brake.”
The scenario goes further, suggesting that declining incomes could impact loans and mortgages, as many people are borrowing “against a future they may no longer believe in.” Paradoxically, AI companies would continue to grow, and the economy would appear healthy on paper, even as ordinary households become poorer.
As The Guardian reports, it’s remarkable that markets were moved by a thought experiment. This wasn’t necessarily since investors fully believe it, but because it was the first to describe the possibility that technological progress doesn’t automatically equate to more jobs and greater prosperity. The report highlights growing anxieties about the broader economic implications of rapid AI adoption.
