NASA and ESA data confirm that asteroid 2024 YR4 will build a close approach to Earth in 2032, but will narrowly miss the Moon. The 60-meter space rock will pass within just 21,200 kilometers (13,200 miles) of the lunar surface, according to the latest observations.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 initially sparked global concern in early 2025 due to a temporarily high impact risk of over three percent for 2032 – the highest such risk for any asteroid in the last two decades. While the threat to Earth was later diminished, a roughly four percent chance of a lunar impact remained. This potential collision would have had spectacular consequences and been visible as a bright flash in the night sky.
Close Lunar Flyby
Now, scientists have ruled out a lunar impact. New data from the James Webb Space Telescope indicates that asteroid 2024 YR4 will safely pass the Moon in 2032. Astronomers had originally anticipated the asteroid would not be within range of telescopes until 2028. However, revised calculations revealed an opportunity to observe the asteroid with the Webb Telescope as early as February 2026.
Using the Webb Telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera, astronomers tracked the asteroid as it passed in front of stars. By analyzing these observations, along with data on star positions from the Gaia telescope, they were able to refine the asteroid’s orbit. The findings show that 2024 YR4 will skim past the Moon at a distance of only 21,200 kilometers (13,200 miles) on December 22, 2032 – but will not collide. “A lunar impact is no longer possible,” the ESA reported. This level of precision in tracking near-Earth objects demonstrates the growing sophistication of astronomical observation and orbital prediction, crucial for planetary defense efforts.
