In a surprising outcome, the Green Party has won the state election in Baden-Württemberg, a region in southwestern Germany. Preliminary results indicate the party, led by Cem Özdemir, secured 30.2 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which received 29.7 percent. Both parties are projected to gain 56 seats each in the state parliament.
Five years ago, the Greens achieved a record result in the state with 32.6 percent of the vote, while the CDU fell to a historic low of 24.1 percent. A continuation of the current coalition government between the Greens and the CDU is widely anticipated. Özdemir has already signaled a willingness to compromise with the CDU in forming a modern government, stating, “Both sides must be able to recognize themselves in the coalition agreement.” He added, “If I lead this state, I will lead it from the center, not according to party lines.” Green party co-leader Franziska Brantner remarked that the results represented a positive sign for Germany, as the elections were won by parties positioned in the political center.
The Green Party’s campaign was largely focused on Özdemir. According to research conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, voters viewed him as more likeable, credible, and competent than his CDU opponent, Manuel Hagel. 47 percent of voters preferred Özdemir as state premier, compared to 33 percent who favored Hagel. The Greens also enjoy a more positive perception within Baden-Württemberg than nationally. The CDU, although, performed well on the issue of economic competence, a key concern given the challenges facing the automotive industry in the region.
Despite this, it wasn’t enough for the CDU. “The responsibility lies with me,” Hagel said, without elaborating on the implications. The ball is now in the Greens’ court regarding government formation. Hagel ruled out any coalition with the right-wing populist AfD, stating, “No office in the world is so important that I would allow myself to be elected with the votes of the AfD.” He affirmed, “It is out of the question for me to be elected as prime minister with the votes of the AfD, even if the arithmetic allows it.”
The AfD received 18.8 percent of the vote, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) garnered 5.5 percent – its worst-ever result. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Left Party both failed to surpass the 5 percent threshold required for representation in the state parliament. Here’s a particularly significant setback for the FDP, which has been represented in the Baden-Württemberg parliament for 70 years. The state leaders of the SPD and FDP, Andreas Stoch and Hans-Ulrich Rülke, announced their resignations on election night.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel expressed her satisfaction, noting that the party’s results were expected to double compared to the previous election. “We will conduct opposition work,” she stated. The SPD’s leader, Lars Klingbeil, described the evening as “bitter” for his party, adding that the close race between Özdemir and Hagel had cost the SPD votes, a dynamic he hopes will benefit the SPD’s candidate in an upcoming election in Rhineland-Palatinate.
In direct votes, for individual candidates, the CDU averaged 34.3 percent, significantly ahead of the Greens with 25.5 percent. SPD candidates received an average of 8.4 percent.
Voter turnout was estimated at 70.2 to 71.5 percent (compared to 63.8 percent in 2021). Approximately 7.7 million people were eligible to vote in the southwestern German state – the highest number ever, as this was the first state election to include 16-year-olds. The now-77-year-traditional outgoing state premier, Kretschmann, did not seek re-election. He has served since 2011, as the first and so far only Green state premier in Germany. Prior to that, the CDU had held the position of state premier in Baden-Württemberg for decades.
