Despite a year-to-date increase of 15.9%, the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) experienced a 12.4% decline in March amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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Carlos Müller, Director of Strategy and Investment Advisory at BBVA Perú’s Global Wealth division, indicated that investors are considering increasing their allocation to specific sectors. He recommended utilizing energy as a tactical hedge against Middle East instability.
“Energy makes sense for two reasons,” Müller stated. “First, if there’s a technical rebound in the market – which is my investment thesis – the world will require more energy, meaning energy companies should be structurally a bit more profitable because they’ll be selling more.”
He suggested an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on energy stocks as a potential avenue for investment.
Petróleo
“And secondly, if something happens in the Middle East – like a prolongation of the war – that disrupts this cycle of productivity (through the adoption of new technologies), it means oil prices will be higher,” Müller added. This assessment comes as crude oil prices recently climbed to around $107 per barrel.
Müller also noted that higher oil prices could incentivize increased oil extraction projects, making them more profitable. He specified that exposure to energy companies could represent approximately 5% of a portfolio, a percentage that should gradually increase if the conflict escalates.
Crudo. Repunta a alrededor de US$ 107 el barril en la última jornada ante escalada del conflicto bélico. (Foto: BBC)
Cíclico
BBVA Wealth Management also suggests maintaining exposure to U.S. Equities, with an increased focus on cyclical sectors such as materials (mining), industrials, and utilities. The firm’s analysis suggests these sectors could benefit from current economic trends.
“Artificial intelligence needs a lot of cabling to make all these huge servers work, and the companies that build that power grid are the utility companies,” Müller explained. This highlights the potential for infrastructure investments to support technological advancements.
BBVA also recommends adding high-quality U.S. Fixed income (bonds) with maturities of one to three years, and considering the inclusion of emerging market debt, particularly from Latin America.
In terms of alternative assets, the bank is prioritizing commodities, as discussed at the “Road to Elections 2026: Political-Economic Environment and Global Investment Opportunities” event hosted by BBVA Global Wealth.
BVL
Regarding the Peruvian stock market, Carlos Müller stated that the impact of the conflict is being offset by the current upcycle in metals prices. “The amount of silver entering Peru due to metal prices is enormous,” he said.
However, the BVL fell nearly 3% on March 19, 2026. BBVA’s base-case scenario anticipates a short duration for the conflict in Iran, potentially extending for two months, according to Müller.
La BVL cedió cerca de 3% ayer. (Foto: Jorge Cerdán/GEC)
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Cambios en preferencias
Comparing the March 2026 high-net-worth investment report to the previous month’s, BBVA has shifted from overweighting Japanese equities to a neutral position in that country’s stocks. The firm also moved from a neutral to overweight stance on commodities.
BBVA maintains a neutral outlook on Peruvian sol-denominated sovereign bonds, arguing that rates still show “attractive levels in nominal and real terms.”
