The week ahead will be shaped by labor market data in Brazil and inflation figures from both Brazil and the United States. Market participants are too closely monitoring potential fresh moves from the Donald Trump administration regarding new tariffs, after the U.S. President stated he will raise the existing 10% global tariff to 15% on Saturday.
Brazil: Caged and IPCA-15
The week begins with a focus on inflation and expectations. On Monday, February 23, the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) will release the weekly IPC-S and the February Consumer Survey. The Central Bank of Brazil will also publish the traditional Focus Report, with market projections, along with the Secex weekly trade balance.
On Tuesday, February 24, the domestic agenda includes the Industrial Survey from the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), as well as the INCC-M and the Construction Survey, also from FGV. The Central Bank will also release the Press Release for the External Sector, with expectations of a US$7.3 billion deficit in January, according to Bradesco’s economics team.
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Wednesday, February 25, will concentrate on activity and credit indicators. The Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE) will present the weekly IPC, while FGV will publish the Industry Survey. The Central Bank will release data on monetary policy and credit operations, as well as the weekly exchange rate flow.
On Thursday, February 26, the highlight will be the February IGP-M, along with surveys of commerce and services, again from FGV.
Closing out the week, Friday, February 27, will see the release of the IPCA-15 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), with Bradesco expecting a 0.56% increase for the month.
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The General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged) is expected to show the creation of 84,000 formal jobs in January, while the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) will define the electricity tariff flag for the next period. FGV will also present the Economic Uncertainty Indicator.
Inflation in the U.S.
Internationally, the week brings key thermometers for activity, inflation, and the labor market in major economies.
On Monday, the ifo Institute will release the German economic sentiment survey. The Mexican IGAE and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) will also be released on the same day.
Wednesday will see the release of the Euro Area’s consumer price index, a key signal for decisions by the European Central Bank.
On Thursday, the European bloc will also release consumer confidence, while the U.S. Will present weekly unemployment claims.
Finally, Friday will concentrate inflation and labor data. Germany will publish its unemployment rate and the February consumer price index. Chile will release the January unemployment rate. In the United States, the January producer price index (PPI) will be released, a key indicator for inflation expectations and the next steps of the Federal Reserve.
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See the full schedule:
| Date | Country | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Monday 23/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: IPC-S (weekly) |
| Monday 23/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: Consumer Survey (Feb) |
| Monday 23/02 08:25 | Brazil | BCB: Focus Report (weekly) |
| Monday 23/02 15:00 | Brazil | Secex: Trade Balance (weekly) |
| Monday 23/02 06:00 | Germany | Economic Sentiment Survey – IFO (Feb) |
| Monday 23/02 09:00 | Mexico | General Index of Economic Activity (IGAE) (Dec) |
| Monday 23/02 10:30 | U.S. | Fed: National Activity Index (CFNAI) (Jan) |
| Tuesday 24/02 | Brazil | CNI: Industrial Survey |
| Tuesday 24/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: INCC-M (Feb) |
| Tuesday 24/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: Construction Survey (Feb) |
| Tuesday 24/02 08:30 | Brazil | BCB: Press Release – External Sector (Jan) – US$ 7.3 billion |
| Tuesday 24/02 09:00 | Mexico | Consumer Price Index (Feb – biweekly) |
| Tuesday 24/02 12:00 | U.S. | Consumer Confidence (Feb) |
| Wednesday 25/02 05:00 | Brazil | FIPE: IPC (weekly) |
| Wednesday 25/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: Industry Survey (Feb) |
| Wednesday 25/02 08:30 | Brazil | BCB: Press Release – Monetary Policy and Credit Operations (Jan) |
| Wednesday 25/02 14:30 | Brazil | BCB: Exchange Rate Flow (weekly) |
| Wednesday 25/02 07:00 | Euro Area | Consumer Price Index (Jan) |
| Thursday 26/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: IGP-M (Feb) – 0.55% (m/m) |
| Thursday 26/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: Commerce Survey (Feb) |
| Thursday 26/02 08:00 | Brazil | FGV: Services Survey (Feb) |
| Thursday 26/02 07:00 | Euro Area | Consumer Confidence (Feb) |
| Thursday 26/02 10:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Claims (weekly) |
| Friday 27/02 | Brazil | Caged: Formal Employment Generation (Jan) – 84 thousand |
| Friday 27/02 | Brazil | ANEEL: Electricity Tariff Flag Definition |
| Friday 27/02 09:00 | Brazil | IBGE: IPCA-15 (Feb) – 0.56% (m/m) |
| Friday 27/02 10:15 | Brazil | FGV: Economic Uncertainty Indicator (Feb) |
| Friday 27/02 05:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate (Feb) |
| Friday 27/02 09:00 | Chile | Unemployment Rate (Jan) |
| Friday 27/02 10:00 | Germany | Consumer Price Index (Feb) |
| Friday 27/02 10:30 | U.S. | Producer Price Index (Jan) |
