China’s oil production is plateauing. The new plan targets 4 million barrels per day – but what does this signify for China’s long-term energy security?
China’s efforts to boost domestic oil production are nearing their limits, according to analysts, as offshore growth slows and developing more expensive unconventional resources becomes increasingly challenging, Reuters reports. Industry experts anticipate production will stabilize just below last year’s record high of 4.32 million barrels per day (bpd) for the next decade.
Beijing’s plan for the period 2026-2030, released on March 5, confirmed this outlook, calling for maintaining output at 4 million barrels per day. This will ensure China remains heavily reliant on imports, which totaled 11.55 million barrels per day last year. Zhu Weilin, former chief geologist at China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) until 2016, stated, “The three national oil companies are trying to maintain this level for as long as possible. It is seen as a minimum amount to be able to cope with unforeseen supply disruptions.”
