Beijing – New estimates from Rhodium Group suggest China’s economic growth will significantly slow in the coming years, falling short of official government targets and raising questions as the nation prepares to unveil its next five-year plan. The analysis,released Friday,projects growth of just 2.5% to 3% in 2025, and a further deceleration to between 1% and 2.5% in 2026. These figures contrast with Beijing’s stated goal of “around 5%” growth for this year,and highlight considerable uncertainty surrounding the country’s post-pandemic recovery.
中国江蘇省南京のショッピングモールで１２日撮影。REUTERS/Go Nakamura
［BEIJING, March 22, Reuters］ – China’s economic growth is now projected to reach just 2.5% to 3% in 2025, according to estimates from Rhodium Group, falling short of the official pace suggested by government data. The slowdown is largely attributed to a weakening in fixed asset investment during the latter half of the year.
The findings come as China prepares to unveil its next five-year plan at the annual National People’s Congress, where officials are expected to announce they have met a yearly growth target of “around 5%.”
However, Rhodium Group estimates a demand shortfall of approximately $500 billion remains unrecorded. The report points to inconsistencies in data, stating, “China’s 2025 economic growth hinges on whether investment simply slowed in the second half of the year, or collapsed.” While data indicates a decline in fixed asset investment, capital formation appears to still be contributing positively to GDP.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Looking ahead to 2026, Rhodium Group forecasts growth will further decelerate to between 1% and 2.5%, significantly lower than the 4.5% predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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