Danish voters will head to the polls on March 24th, following an early election call by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. A strengthened position stemming from her resistance to U.S. President Donald Trump’s interest in Greenland prompted the move, though recent polling suggests her coalition isn’t guaranteed a decisive victory. The situation highlights the delicate balance between foreign policy challenges and domestic concerns for the Danish leader.
Frederiksen announced the parliamentary elections, stating they would be crucial as Copenhagen navigates its relationship with Washington over the next four years, particularly regarding the U.S.’s desire to acquire Greenland. While not a snap election in the strictest sense – a new parliament was already constitutionally mandated this year – the vote is occurring against the backdrop of Trump’s claims regarding Greenland’s ownership.
Frederiksen’s popularity typically rises during crises, but her three-party governing coalition – comprised of the Social Democrats, the Moderate Party, and the Liberal Party – could lose its parliamentary majority in this election. Support for the coalition parties has declined since the last vote.
“Frederiksen is active in foreign policy, but there is growing criticism in Denmark that domestic problems, especially the rising cost of living, have been neglected.”
Frederiksen had hoped that her firm stance on the Greenland issue would secure a third term, but domestic issues have taken center stage in the campaign, according to Aarhus University Professor Rune Stubager.
“The Social Democratic party has proposed a wealth tax. They have also proposed changing the pension system so that people who have physically demanding jobs can retire earlier than others. We have also seen discussions about immigration, which has been a relevant issue in Danish politics for some time. Some parties are proposing policies that would reduce the number of Muslims in the country. And the third topic is actually pollution,” Stubager said.
While one might expect Greenland to remain a central focus of the election campaign as a key foreign policy issue, discussions surrounding U.S. Claims to the island have quieted.
“I would say that there is almost no discussion about the Greenland issue in the current campaign.”
The primary reason is that most parties agree that the U.S. Claims to Greenland are entirely unacceptable and that Denmark should oppose them, while also cooperating with Greenland to counter any, as he place it, hostile U.S. Attempts to grab over the island, Stubager explained.
U.S. Claims to Greenland represent a red line for Denmark, but Copenhagen is also granting Nuuk greater freedom in the matter. In 2009, Greenland gained broader autonomy – an agreement between Copenhagen and Nuuk stipulates that Greenland has the right to hold a referendum on independence from Denmark. Neither the Greenlandic government nor its citizens have expressed such an initiative to date.
“The Greenlandic government says it wants to maintain the current relationship model with Denmark, perhaps agreeing on greater freedom of decision-making. But they definitely want to remain part of the Kingdom of Denmark for the time being. (…) And that can only change if the people of Greenland decide so. As long as they don’t decide, and there are currently no signs that they will in the near future, to unite with the U.S., Denmark will oppose the U.S. And that will not change regardless of the election outcome, because essentially all parties agree on that,” Stubager clarified.
The dispute over Greenland’s ownership rattled transatlantic relations two months ago, but attention to the issue has waned. The conflict in the Middle East has moved to the forefront.
Stubager noted that discussions between Denmark and the U.S. Regarding Greenland are currently underway, but Washington’s demands remain unclear:
“You can talk about what can be done to make Americans feel safe. They already have extensive opportunities to develop their military presence in Greenland under existing agreements. It is tough for the Danes to understand what they want more in terms of defense, which they cannot already do. But we hope, I feel, also most Danes, that the European Union will continue to support Denmark and Greenland in any future discussions.”
Meanwhile, tensions remain high on the world’s largest island. Last week, the resignation of Greenland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vivianna Mocfelta, following an internal dispute within the Social Democratic party, came at a particularly inopportune moment, as she was a key figure in negotiations with Washington.
Greenland’s prime minister has stated that the resignation comes at a very inappropriate time, while Danish intelligence services have warned that the U.S. Could exploit any internal divisions, which could weaken Greenland’s position in negotiations.
