Public health officials are closely monitoring an early surge in influenza activity across Canada, with the peak expected to arrive before January for the second year in a row. Experts attribute this shift-a departure from pre-pandemic patterns-to perhaps lowered immunity resulting from reduced circulation of the virus during recent years. This developing situation is already straining healthcare resources, especially in Quebec adn British Columbia, and underscores the importance of preventative measures as the winter season progresses.
The flu season is starting earlier than expected this year. For the second time in three years, the peak of influenza activity appears likely to occur before January, raising concerns for public health officials as the winter months approach.
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“We’re seeing the same trend as in 2023-2024,” explains epidemiologist Benoît Mâsse, of the University of Montreal. “The peak of flu activity is expected to arrive during the last week of December. Last year, the peak was rather in mid-to-late February.”
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was uncommon for flu transmission to peak before January. Experts believe the shift may be linked to reduced influenza circulation during the pandemic years, potentially lowering population immunity. This early surge underscores the importance of proactive public health measures and vaccination efforts.
The increased viral activity is already impacting healthcare access, with average wait times to speak with a nurse at Info-Santé currently at 67 minutes – a significant increase from 43 minutes last month. This longer wait time highlights the strain on healthcare resources as the flu season progresses.
Currently, the province of Quebec and the Fraser Valley region of British Columbia are experiencing the highest levels of flu activity in Canada. “In Quebec City, they often say there are two seasons: winter and the next winter,” Mâsse noted with a touch of humor. “The colder temperatures experienced in Montreal in early November were even more severe than in Quebec City, so perhaps Montreal residents stayed indoors more, increasing their risk of infection, earlier than usual.”
Mâsse added that the flu peak in Montreal could be even more pronounced due to the increased gatherings typical of the holiday season.
A second, typically less severe, flu peak often occurs later in the winter. This second wave is usually linked to influenza B, while the initial peak is driven by influenza A.
COVID-19 Also Circulating
COVID-19 cases peaked in September, and transmission rates are now at a lower plateau but remain elevated. The continued presence of COVID-19 alongside the flu emphasizes the need for continued vigilance and preventative measures.
“It’s important to be careful, as COVID-19 is still circulating,” Mâsse said. “There’s a long tail after the peak; it takes several months for cases to decline, unlike the flu, which decreases rapidly after the peak.”
Mâsse recommends that vulnerable individuals space out their vaccinations, receiving the flu shot and the COVID-19 vaccine at different times.
The updated COVID-19 vaccine is available now, and can be administered, followed by the influenza vaccine a few weeks later. This approach aims to maximize protection during both the COVID-19 and flu peaks.
Jesse Papenburg, an infectious disease specialist at the Montreal Children’s Hospital, received the COVID-19 vaccine several weeks before getting his flu shot. “This is a consideration at the highest levels,” explained Dr. Papenburg, who chairs the Quebec Immunization Committee. “Combining the two vaccines certainly improves vaccine coverage, but the peaks of COVID-19 and the flu don’t occur at the same time.”
Dr. Papenburg noted that, since last year, a second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine has been recommended in the spring for at-risk groups. “When the new COVID-19 vaccine becomes available in September, there’s not much protection left from the vaccination last fall.”
Mask Wearing
In response to the early arrival of the flu, hospitals have reinforced recommendations for mask-wearing for individuals experiencing respiratory symptoms.
“I often say that for elderly people, it’s best to wear a mask when going to the emergency room right now,” Mâsse advised. “Personally, I’m going to bring back my N95 masks if I need to go.”
Preliminary data suggests that this year’s flu vaccine is reasonably effective, even though one of the three influenza strains it contains isn’t the one currently circulating, according to the epidemiologist.
En savoir plus
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- 4139
- Number of deaths attributable to the flu in Canada in 2021
Source: Statistics Canada
- 6000 to 7000
- Number of deaths attributable to the flu in Canada each year, excluding 2021
Source: Statistics Canada
