The perennial question heading into Semana Santa (Holy Week) remains: will it rain? And this year is no exception. Businesses connected to tourism and hospitality are closely monitoring forecasts, keeping a watchful eye on the skies. Predicting the weather so far in advance is inherently uncertain, but historical data can offer valuable insights.
The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) released its historical data series this Saturday, analyzing rainfall patterns between March 29th and April 5th, encompassing the period of Semana Santa. The data spans from 1951 to 2025.
The analysis reveals positive indicators for the Málaga province. Historically, there has been no rainfall on 35% of occasions during the Semana Santa period. This represents a dry period in the province, with no recorded precipitation, according to Aemet’s historical records.
What we have is the most optimistic scenario. In a further 19% of cases, based on past years, the historical data shows only one day of rain out of the eight days analyzed. Notably, the data indicates that it has never rained every day during the Semana Santa period in Málaga since 1951.
Looking at the broader Andalusian region, Jaén and Huelva have historically experienced the least rainfall between March 29th and April 5th, with no precipitation recorded in 61% of the periods analyzed. Conversely, Málaga (35%) and Córdoba (36%) have the lowest probability of remaining dry throughout the eight-day period.
Aemet emphasizes that this information is merely an estimate based on the past 74 years’ weather patterns – a statistical probability that will grow clearer in the coming days. Continued observation of the skies is advised.
