Central banks can create money out of thin air, but they cannot produce oil.
Global energy prices are surging, leaving significant uncertainty about the potential economic fallout. The extent of the damage will largely depend on the duration and escalation of the conflict involving Iran. Adding to the complexity, central banks face limited tools to mitigate the impact of this supply shock.
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Jautājums par optimālo aktīvu alokāciju ir nemitīgs izaicinājums ikvienam investoram un uz to nav vienkāršas un viennozīmīgas atbildes. Tomēr vēsturisko datu analīze sniedz labu ieguldījumu lēmumu pieņemšanas ietvaru, ļaujot izvērtēt, kā dažādas aktīvu klases uzvedušās mainīgos makroekonomiskajos apstākļos, un tādā veidā pamatot sava portfeļa veidošanas stratēģiju.
On Sunday, March 2, 2026, Brent crude oil prices jumped 10% to approximately $80 per barrel following strikes by the U.S. And Israel in Iran, igniting a new conflict in the Middle East, according to reports from LSM.lv. Some analysts are forecasting potential price increases to as high as $120-$130 per barrel.
The surge in oil prices comes amid growing concerns about potential disruptions to supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport. Sources told Reuters that many tanker owners, major oil companies, and trading firms have suspended shipments of oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the strait after Iran warned ships against navigating the area. This disruption is exacerbating fears of a wider regional escalation.
Further compounding the situation, QatarEnergy announced on Monday, March 3, 2026, that it had halted production of LNG following drone attacks on facilities at two of its plants, as reported by DELFI. European natural gas prices rose by more than 39% in response. Global oil prices climbed over 6% due to the supply concerns.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies announced on March 2, 2026, that they would increase their daily production by 206,000 barrels per day. While this increase could slightly offset the anticipated rise in oil prices, energy analysts do not expect it to have a substantial impact, according to TV3.lv. The current situation presents a significant challenge for central banks, which are limited in their ability to address supply-side shocks.
