Oil platforms with the Iranian flag
Europe is facing a new energy shock as gas prices surge following escalating regional tensions and their direct impact on global energy supplies.
European gas prices jumped by more than 30% on Tuesday, fueled by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract rose by over 40%, following a roughly 50% increase on Monday, resulting in a two-day gain of approximately 90%. This surge followed Qatar’s announcement of a halt to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after attacks on its energy facilities.
Escalating tensions ignite energy markets
Immediate Pressure on European Markets
The jump in energy prices coincided with a decline in European stock markets at the open. The Frankfurt DAX index fell 2%, the Paris CAC 40 lost 1.8% and the FTSE 100 shed 1.4% of its value.
In the oil market, Brent crude rose by more than 4% to $81 a barrel in afternoon trading in Asia on Tuesday. At 1:15 PM Gulf Standard Time, Brent was trading at $81.98 (up 5.45%) and West Texas Intermediate for April delivery was at $75.02 (up 5.32%).
QatarEnergy announced on Monday the suspension of liquefied natural gas production following attacks on its operational facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. The company stated: “Due to a military attack on its operational facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in the State of Qatar, QatarEnergy has halted the production of liquefied natural gas and related products.”
This development comes at a time when Europe is heavily reliant on LNG, with data showing that European LNG imports reached 146 billion cubic meters in 2025, making any sudden disruption to supplies a direct driver of price volatility.
Goldman Sachs Raises Forecasts
Concurrently, Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for TTF gas prices for the second quarter of this year to €45 per megawatt-hour, compared to a previous estimate of €36, citing the disruption to Qatar’s LNG production, which is adding pressure to an already fragile supply market.
The bank also increased its price forecast for gas on the TTF index for April 2026 to €55 per megawatt-hour, up from €36 previously, believing that continued disruptions or delays in the full resumption of production could keep the market in a state of flux for longer, with prices remaining sensitive to any developments in global supplies.
As these events unfold, attention is focused on the trajectory of regional escalation and the potential for its impact on supply chains. There is growing concern that energy disruptions could broaden into a wider wave of pressure on markets and increase energy costs in Europe in the coming period.
