Published On 6/3/2026
European natural gas prices are approaching a surge of over 60%, marking the largest weekly increase since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, as the conflict in Iran enters its seventh day and casts a shadow over global gas supply forecasts.
Qatar’s Minister of Energy, Saad Al Kaabi, told the Financial Times that even if the war were to conclude immediately, a return to normal supply cycles would take “weeks to months.”
اقرأ أيضا
list of 2 itemsend of list
This heightens concerns among traders, who are grappling with uncertainty regarding potential escalation and its impact on market sentiment. Disruptions to energy supplies are fueling fears of increased competition for fuel and rising inflationary pressures, particularly in Europe.
The current fragility of the European gas market comes as it exits winter with depleted stocks, necessitating the purchase of more shipments via sea this summer to replenish reserves. This will likely create competition with buyers in Asia for a limited supply of LNG if gas flows from the Gulf are not maintained.
مخاطر الإمداد
While prices remain well below the record highs seen during the 2022 energy crisis – currently hovering around €50 (approximately $54 USD) per megawatt-hour compared to a peak exceeding €300 (approximately $324 USD) per megawatt-hour – shipping movements in the Strait of Hormuz have been almost completely halted, leaving dozens of oil and gas tankers laden with cargo stranded in the Arabian Gulf. This key waterway typically carries around 5th of global LNG shipments.
Meanwhile, implied volatility in benchmark European gas futures – which measures the cost of options on these contracts – has more than quadrupled since the beginning of 2026 and is now approaching its highest levels since the summer of 2023.
Dutch front-month gas futures, the European benchmark, rose 3.8% to €52.68 (approximately $57 USD) per megawatt-hour by 9:39 a.m. GMT.
Analysts at Bernstein noted that European benchmark gas prices may need to rise sharply to ensure sufficient supplies are available if disruptions to Qatari LNG exports continue, according to reporting from Investing.com.
The brokerage added that the TTF Dutch reference contracts may need to increase by around 40% to 50% from current levels to attract LNG shipments away from Asia and secure sufficient supplies for Europe, should the disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the halt to Qatari production persist.
