Amid escalating tensions with Russia and a renewed push for military preparedness, a growing disconnect is emerging within Europe: while governments invest in bolstering defenses, public willingness to participate in them is waning. Recent polls reveal a notable hesitance among European citizens – particularly younger generations – to take up arms, despite rising anxieties about teh geopolitical landscape and increased support for rearmament. This report examines the factors contributing to this apparent paradox and the potential challenges it poses for European security strategy.
European nations are undertaking a significant military buildup, yet public support for increased defense preparedness appears to be waning, particularly among younger generations.
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French President Emmanuel Macron has issued increasingly stark warnings about the growing threat posed by Russia. He argues that it would be naive to believe Moscow’s ambitions are limited to Ukraine, asserting that Russia has become a danger to France and to Europe as a whole.
Similarly, Blaise Metreweli, the head of the British foreign intelligence service MI6, recently spoke publicly – a rare occurrence – about the threat to Ukraine and NATO from an aggressive Russia.
Threats from Moscow
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These concerns are echoed by numerous other leaders, including the NATO Secretary-General, the German Chancellor, and the British Prime Minister. Russian officials, meanwhile, continue to fuel these anxieties with increasingly bellicose rhetoric.
Just recently, Pyotr Tolstoy, Vice President of the Russian Parliament’s Duma, stated in a French television interview that any French soldiers on Ukrainian soil would be killed.
Russia Viewed as an Adversary
A sense of threat is beginning to resonate with the European public. More people than ever now perceive Russia as an adversary, and the risk of war is seen as significantly higher. Even in traditionally neutral Switzerland, support for NATO is on the rise.
However, this perception sharply contrasts with the results of numerous opinion polls regarding willingness to defend one’s country. Professor Franz Eder of the University of Innsbruck analyzed the results of an Austrian survey on Servus TV, stating: “The vast majority of the Austrian population, according to a representative survey, is not prepared to take up arms.”
While many support the military buildup in Europe, the willingness to defend it is low.
Reuters/Adrian Streun (03.05.2011)
According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, 50 percent of Europeans currently support military rearmament, while only 24 percent oppose it. However, the reintroduction of mandatory military service, abolished in most countries, remains highly controversial.
Among 18- to 29-year-olds – those most likely to be drafted – only 27 percent are in favor. And according to a Gallup poll, just half would be willing to fight for their country, with a third saying they would not. This hesitancy could complicate defense strategies across the continent.
In Italy, 78 percent reject the idea, and in Germany, 57 percent. The willingness to fight for NATO allies, such as the Baltic states, is even lower, despite the obligation to do so under the NATO treaty.
Europe as a “Post-Heroic Society”
“We live in Europe in a post-heroic society,” said renowned Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev. He added that the lack of desire for war is, in many ways, a positive development, and that the greatest success of European integration has been making war within the EU unthinkable.
Consequently, governments also recognize that they no longer have the right to sacrifice the lives of their citizens if necessary. This simply no longer belongs to the current social contract.
However, this is not the case for all governments and societies, especially those in dictatorships like Russia. This presents a problem for Europe, as it faces the paradoxical situation of potentially possessing far more weapons in the near future, but lacking the necessary number of soldiers willing and able to fight a war.
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