Geopolitical instability is accelerating the search for independence from black gold. Countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Colombia, Canada, and Brazil have already begun seeking a new map of “treasure” in all energy sectors.
The construction of a roadmap for the global transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) is already referenced in more than 50 countries, according to a study by the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (CEBRAP) and other international organizations, released on Tuesday, March 10, 2026. Researchers mapped 46 nations with initiatives to decarbonize the energy sector and another 11 studies to limit and reduce the supply of oil, gas, and coal, as reported by Agência Brasil.
Researchers evaluating the report suggest that, in addition to reducing the impacts of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, countries are seeking protection from geopolitical instability resulting from conflicts and wars.
“Dependence on fossil fuels is not only an economic vulnerability but a driver of global instability, exposing producers and consumers to increasing volatility, security risks, and climate risks,” says Katrine Petersen, senior policy advisor at the think tank E3G.
countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Colombia, Canada, and Brazil are leading the way with plans that include electrification and expansion of renewable energies, decommissioning and reforming fossil fuel subsidies as national ambitions.
The study explains that isolated efforts by countries are not enough to contain growing threats. “Without planning and international cooperation between producing and consuming countries on the global transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF), countries in general now face increasing risks of energy insecurity, economic volatility, climate impacts, and disruptions,” the study reinforces.
According to Cláudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory, although these plans are relevant in adopting internal public policies, it is necessary to advance a global process that encompasses the dynamics of products produced in some countries and consumed in others. “National initiatives that exist are extremely useful building blocks for constructing roadmaps, but they need scale, criteria, and a time horizon. Hence the importance of multilateral effort,” he states.
In pursuit of this global approach, the report presents an analysis of the principles and elements of planning existing in national initiatives that can contribute to or be improved in the construction of the roadmap and the expansion of national plans that consider a transition process with equity, ambition, consistency, and trust. The study highlights five guiding elements: alignment with climate science; an approach that considers both production and consumption; inclusive planning and protection for workers, with the application of fair principles; guaranteeing national sovereignty in the forms of transition with transversality between governments; and grounding in human rights, with guarantees of social protection, especially for the most vulnerable.
Researchers add that structuring the process with coordinated planning and financing brings more security to producing countries, such as Brazil, and the market in general. “Countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues need predictable trajectories and international coordination to successfully diversify [energy production],” says Stela Herschmann, a climate policy specialist at the Climate Observatory.
For Cláudio Ângelo, the world now needs to decide to implement the decision and set a date that is sufficient for both weaning off fossil fuels and for the market to prepare for the transition. “In recent days, in Juiz de Fora and in Iran, we are observing the double risk of our dependence on fossils: the climatic and the economic. As long as we do not clearly signal that this era will come to an end, we will continue to be subject to the whims of Saint Peter and the caprices of a Donald Trump,” he concludes.
Note:
This text was written by Fabíola Sinimbú and the article was kindly provided by Agência Brasil.
