European Economies Face Divergent Risks as Iran Blockade of Hormuz Persists
The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian military forces, which began in late February 2026, continues to disrupt global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, creating a volatile economic landscape for European nations. While some countries remain relatively insulated, others face severe financial exposure due to their heavy reliance on Gulf state imports.
According to an analysis conducted by the University of Delft, the Complexity Science Hub (CSH), and the Wiener Supply Chain Intelligence Institute, the economic impact across Europe is unevenly distributed. The United Kingdom is the most affected nation on the continent, with approximately $12.9 billion in annual imports at risk, including $5.9 billion in gas products from Qatar.
Within the European Union, Italy has emerged as the hardest-hit member state. The country faces annual risks totaling roughly $9.8 billion (approximately 8.5 billion euros). A significant portion of this vulnerability stems from energy dependencies, specifically $4.4 billion in Qatari LNG and $3.2 billion in propane imports.
Belgium is also described as “strongly exposed” in the study. The port of Zeebrugge is a critical entry point for Qatari LNG, valued at about $5.8 billion annually, while the port of Antwerp handles substantial diamond trade with the United Arab Emirates. This development underscores the fragility of specialized trade routes during regional conflicts.
In contrast, Germany and France are viewed as being more broadly diversified. Germany’s annual imports from the affected Gulf states are estimated at approximately $5.7 billion, leaving it less vulnerable than its southern and western neighbors.
The long-term stability of the global economy may hinge on the duration of the closure. Stefan Thurner, an author of the study, warned that if the Iranian blockade exceeds four weeks, the resulting delays in global supply chains could initiate to escalate, compounding the economic damage.
As the crisis persists, diplomatic tensions have risen over how to secure the waterway. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas has repeatedly rejected calls from the U.S. President to deploy warships to protect the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to Reuters, Kallas emphasized that the EU is prioritizing a diplomatic resolution, stating, “Niemand ist bereit, seine Leute in der Straße von Hormus in Gefahr zu bringen” (“No one is ready to place their people in danger in the Strait of Hormuz”).
The standoff highlights the growing tension between military deterrence and diplomatic engagement as the world waits to see if the critical shipping lane can be reopened before global supply chain disruptions become irreversible.
