Group Stage Standings: In the event of a tie in points, the head-to-head record (points, goal difference, goals scored) is the first tiebreaker. If head-to-head records are equal, the overall group stage record is considered. If those remain tied, the team’s ranking prior to the tournament is used. This tiebreaker proved crucial in Group B, where three teams finished with six points, but Slovakia secured the top spot due to a superior goal difference in head-to-head matches (Slovakia-Somia 4:1, Somia-Sweden 4:1, Sweden-Slovakia 5:3, totaling +1 for Slovakia, 0 for Somia, and -1 for Sweden).
Overall Tournament Seeding: Teams are seeded for the overall tournament based on the following criteria: 1) position in the group, 2) points, 3) goal difference, 4) goals scored, and 5) the 2023 IIHF ranking. The top four teams will qualify directly to the quarterfinal round – that is, the winners of all the groups, as well as the best second-place finisher. Canada and Slovakia have already guaranteed first place in Groups A and B, respectively, while the United States is very close to securing first in Group C (a single point will guarantee first place, a loss by two goals or less while Latvia defeats Denmark in regulation could as well suffice). Somia is a strong favorite to earn the best second-place finish after dismantling Italy 11-0 on Saturday.
A Group
| V | Team | S | U | UP | ZP | Z | Vārti | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Canada | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 6 |
| 2. | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:8 | 5 |
| 3. | Czechia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9:12 | 4 |
| 4. | France | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:10 | 0 |
B Group
| V | Team | S | U | UP | ZP | Z | Vārti | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:8 | 6 |
| 2. | Somia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 6 |
| 3. | Sweden | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:9 | 6 |
| 4. | Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:19 | 0 |
C Group
| V | Team | S | U | UP | ZP | Z | Vārti | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:4 | 6 |
| 2. | Latvia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 3. | Germany | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 4. | Denmark | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | 0 |
Current Overall Standings
| V | G | Team | S | U | UP | ZP | Z | Vārti | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | A1 | Canada | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 6 |
| 2. | C1 | USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:4 | 6 |
| 3. | B1 | Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:8 | 6 |
| 4. | B2 | Somia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 6 |
| 5. | A2 | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:8 | 5 |
| 6. | C2 | Latvia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 7. | B3 | Sweden | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:9 | 6 |
| 8. | A3 | Czechia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9:12 | 4 |
| 9. | C3 | Germany | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 10. | C4 | Denmark | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | 0 |
| 11. | A4 | France | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:10 | 0 |
| 12. | B4 | Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:19 | 0 |
A Long Shot for the Quarterfinals: Latvia’s Path. Latvia can no longer realistically contend for first place in its group, but a slim chance remains to secure a best second-place finish – requiring a win over Denmark by at least 14 goals. Even that may not be enough, but, if Germany defeats the United States by two goals or less, as Latvia would then be relegated to third place in the group (an eight-goal win would secure second place, pushing the Americans to third).
If Latvia Doesn’t Win by +14 and Germany Doesn’t Win:
– A regulation win over Denmark would guarantee 5th place in the overall standings and a qualification playoff against the weakest team from the group stage (most likely Italy),
– A tie in regulation, earning at least as many points as Germany, would maintain second place in the group and 6th place leading to a playoff against the second-to-last team in the tournament (most likely France),
– A loss in overtime or a shootout, if Germany wins, or a regulation loss by one goal if Germany loses in regulation, would give Latvia third place in the group and 9th place meaning a playoff matchup against 8th-place Czechia,
– A regulation loss by one goal, combined with Germany earning at least a point against the USA, or a loss by at least two goals (regardless of Germany’s result), would relegate Latvia to last place in the group and likely 10th place resulting in a playoff against 7th-place Sweden.
If Germany Wins in Regulation:
– Latvia can only secure second place in the group if it wins in regulation against Denmark and Germany defeats the USA by at least eight goals,
– Latvia will finish last in the group if it loses to Denmark in regulation,
– In all other scenarios, Latvia will finish third in the group.
What to Do in the Final Minutes? If Denmark has a +1 lead late in regulation, they may consider pulling their goalie, as the benefit of a +2 advantage would far outweigh the risk of conceding a regulation win. Interestingly, the Latvian coaching staff could theoretically consider the same tactic, but the risk of losing by -2 and guaranteeing last place in the group would be significantly greater than the potential reward of fighting for second place.
Quarterfinal Pairings. The overall tournament standings are vital not only for determining playoff opponents but also for the quarterfinal pairings – the strongest team in the group stage will play the winner of the 8th and 9th place matchup, the second-place team will face the winner of the 7th and 10th place matchup, the third-place team will face the winner of the 6th and 11th place matchup, and the fourth-place team will face the winner of the 5th and 12th place matchup. If Latvia finishes 5th, it will most likely face Italy and then Somia, while 6th place would mean a matchup against France, and Slovakia. These are the most likely scenarios – upsets in the Canada-France and USA-Germany games could significantly alter the bracket.
Kurš Latvijas izlases treneru štābā ir matemātiķis?
Lauris Dārziņš: Visi kalkulē, visi seko līdzi. Mums jāizdara tas, kas atkarīgs no mums. Tajā brīdī, kad sāc kalkulēt, tu aizpeldi. Mums svarīgi ir nopelnīt vietu 1/4 finālā. Tur vienmēr spēlē komandas, kas to ir pelnījušas
— Ulvis Brože (@UlvisBrozhe) February 15, 2026
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