Amidst global attention on the conflict in Iran, a shift in oil shipments is quietly underway that could weaken the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin over Hungary and Slovakia, according to a report by Bloomberg. The development highlights the complex geopolitical maneuvering surrounding energy security in Europe as the war in Ukraine continues.
Tankers carrying non-Russian oil are now heading to Croatia, signaling a potential change in supply routes for Hungary and Slovakia. These nations have been reliant on Russian energy, a dependency their leaders have leveraged to obstruct aid packages to Ukraine, including a recent $90 billion proposal.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Slovak counterpart, Robert Fico, have used energy considerations to block assistance to Ukraine. Even if Orbán loses upcoming elections in April, Fico is expected to remain in power for at least another 18 months, potentially continuing to impede international efforts to support Kyiv.
“Orbán and Fico’s arguments simply don’t create sense,” said Karel Hirman, a former Slovakian economy minister. “They are jeopardizing their countries’ energy security by demanding supplies from a producer who is at war with the country through which that oil is transported.”
The issue extends beyond energy, as Ukraine this week accused Hungary of “hostage-taking” after seven employees of a state-owned bank were detained in Budapest. This incident underscores the increasingly strained relationship between the two countries.
Last month, Hungary’s oil refining company, Mol Nyrt., ordered over seven tankers carrying more than 1 million tons of non-Russian oil for its refineries in Hungary and Slovakia – a purchase valued at approximately $650 million at current prices, representing a 60% premium over the cost of Russian oil.
Orbán has sought to position himself as a safe choice amidst the ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, but recent polls indicate he trails his main competitor by 20 percentage points. The situation is further complicated by Croatia’s emerging role as a key player in the region.
“It’s hard to keep up with the excuses coming from some Hungarian politicians and the heads of energy companies these days as to why Russian oil ‘must’ flow through the Adriatic pipeline,” stated Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar. “One day it’s capacity. The next day it’s transit fees. The third day it’s refinery compatibility. The fourth day – a sudden turnaround – now, unexpectedly, trust in the EU, along with dramatic threats.”
Oil supplies from Russia were disrupted on January 27th when a Russian attack damaged infrastructure along a pipeline running through Ukraine. This forced Hungary and Slovakia to tap into reserves and seek alternative routes, options they had previously resisted and criticized.
Since then, both countries have criticized Ukraine for delaying repairs to the pipeline or preventing an independent assessment of the damage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, has maintained his position, stating on Thursday that he has no interest in repairing a pipeline that benefits Russia while bringing death to his nation.
Orbán quickly responded, announcing in a regular Friday radio address that Hungary would “halt everything that is significant to Ukraine until we receive Ukrainian approval for oil transit.”
Brussels has urged Kyiv to restore the flow, framing it as a condition for unlocking further aid to Ukraine. The situation could persist for weeks or months, even if Peter Magyar, Orbán’s opponent, wins the upcoming elections, as he has been cautious about making firm commitments that could be exploited by Orbán.
In Slovakia, opposition figures are prepared to reduce reliance on Russian energy and align with EU goals, prioritizing diversification and improved relations with Croatia. Any cooperation with Russia, they say, would only be considered after a peace agreement is reached.
Croatia, which has a complex relationship with Orbán, has offered its pipeline as a primary route for supplying oil to Hungary. “It could be the main pipeline for both Hungary and Slovakia,” Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković stated, dismissing claims that the pipeline is unreliable and should only serve as a supplementary source. “I would like to send a message to the public in both countries that Janaf can ensure their oil supply.”
