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Indonesia Markets: IHSG Rebounds, Rupiah Strengthens Amidst Global Tensions (March 10, 2026)

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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesian financial markets closed higher on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, as the stock market rose while the rupiah and government bonds experienced slight declines.

Despite Tuesday’s rebound, Indonesian financial markets are expected to face continued significant pressure on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, following recent underperformance.

Further details regarding Wednesday’s market projections can be found on page 3 of this article.

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) reversed course on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, recovering from a sharp decline the previous day.

The IHSG initially surged 2.2% and nearly reached the 7,500 level at the start of trading, but ultimately trimmed its gains to close up 1.41%, or 103 points, at 7,440.91 at the end of the second session.

A total of 534 shares rose, 190 declined, and 93 remained unchanged. Transaction value reached Rp 19.16 trillion, involving 336.26 billion shares in 2.03 million transactions. Market capitalization increased to Rp 13,338 trillion.

Nearly all sectors traded higher, with the largest gains recorded in the energy and raw materials sectors. Only the infrastructure and technology sectors posted declines on Tuesday.

Notable stocks driving the IHSG’s performance on Tuesday included DSSA, BRMS, BBCA, BMRI, and BYAN.

Previously, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) plummeted on Monday, March 9, 2026. The IHSG briefly fell as much as 5.2% to a low of 7,156, before paring its losses to close down 3.27%, or 248 points, at 7,337.37.

Turning to the rupiah, the Indonesian currency closed higher against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, coinciding with a weakening of the dollar in global markets.

According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah strengthened 0.47%, or appreciated to Rp16,855 per U.S. Dollar.

This gain reversed the previous day’s decline, when the rupiah briefly touched Rp16,990 per U.S. Dollar before closing down 0.15% at Rp16,935 per U.S. Dollar on Monday, March 9, 2026.

Throughout Tuesday’s trading session, the rupiah showed strengthening from the open, opening up 0.62% at Rp16,830 per U.S. Dollar and trading in a range of Rp16,830 to Rp16,890.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.67% at 98.515 as of 3:00 PM local time.

The rupiah’s strengthening on Tuesday was supported by a combination of external and domestic factors.

Externally, the weakening of the U.S. Dollar in global markets was a key driver. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, corrected on Tuesday after jumping the previous day due to market concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Pressure on the U.S. Dollar eased after U.S. President Donald Trump stated in an interview with foreign media that the war against Iran was “very finished.”

This statement somewhat alleviated investor concerns about a prolonged conflict that could disrupt global energy supplies and hinder global economic growth.

Previously, the conflict between the U.S. And Israel against Iran had shaken global financial markets and triggered a surge in oil prices, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, including the U.S. Dollar.

However, with some easing of market concerns, investors are now reducing their holdings of dollar-denominated assets, creating room for other currencies, including the rupiah, to strengthen.

Domestically, positive sentiment also came from retail sales data. Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that the Real Sales Index (IPR) grew 5.7% year-on-year in January 2026.

Regarding the domestic bond market, the yield on the 10-year government bond (SBN) currently stands at 6.692%, up from 6.741% the previous day. This increase in yield indicates investor selling, leading to falling prices and rising yields.

From U.S. Stock markets, Wall Street was mostly lower on Tuesday or early Wednesday morning Indonesia time.

Indices fell amid volatile trading, as oil prices weakened and investors continued to monitor developments in the Iran conflict.

The S&P fell 0.21% and closed at 6,781.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 34.29 points, or 0.07%, to 47,706.51. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.01% to end at 22,697.10.

Earlier in the day, the Dow had fallen as much as 296.57 points, or about 0.6%. At its lowest point, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

 

Oil prices, which jumped nearly $120 a barrel on Monday amid high fears over the Iran conflict, fell as traders anticipated that some countries would tap emergency oil reserves to cushion supply disruptions from the conflict.

Oil prices then fell further after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated in a social media post (which was later deleted) that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, after the post appeared to be deleted, oil prices rebounded slightly from their lowest levels, while stocks fell from their intraday highs.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt later said on Tuesday that the U.S. Had not actually escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market sentiment was also weighed down by a CBS News report that the United States was beginning to witness indications that Iran was moving to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 a barrel. Brent crude fell 11.28% to $87.80 a barrel.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oRa2V/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-oRa2V" height="394" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Pergerakan harga minyak WTI (US$/barel)" aria-label="Line chart" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1

Looking ahead to the mid-week trading session on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, global capital market participants and financial professionals are facing a crucial mix of sentiment.

Throughout Tuesday, markets digested a series of macroeconomic data releases from Asia indicating strengthening fundamentals, alongside ongoing news of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East fueling energy price volatility.

This morning’s report provides a chronology of market developments throughout yesterday and projects the primary focus of investors on Wednesday’s trading, where the release of U.S. Inflation data this evening will be the key determinant of future market direction.

APBN KiTA

Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa will hold a press conference on APBN KiTa to present the condition of the state budget for February 2026.

This press conference is highly anticipated amid the outbreak of the Iran-Israel-US war. It will be engaging to see whether Purbaya will announce new policies to anticipate the impact of the war, including anticipating a decline in revenue.

It will also be interesting to see the development of state spending up to the first two months of this year. It will also be interesting to see how much state revenue there is up to February 2026, especially income tax.

Japan’s Q4-2025 Economic Growth Revised Up to 0.3%

Leading off the data releases on Tuesday, the Cabinet Office of Japan reported that the country’s economy expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This revised figure is higher than the initial estimate of 0.1% and in line with market expectations. The performance marks a fundamental recovery after Japan’s economy contracted by 0.7% in the third quarter.

The main driver of the recovery was an upward revision of several key components. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s economic structure, was revised up to grow by 0.3% from an initial estimate of 0.1%, supported by Tokyo’s fiscal measures aimed at easing the burden of rising living costs.

business investment saw a sharp upward revision to 1.2% from a previous 0.2%, indicating strengthening corporate spending on capacity and equipment.

Government spending also rose 0.4%, reflecting continued fiscal support. Meanwhile, net trade performance did not contribute to growth, as both exports and imports fell by 0.3% due to weakening external demand and domestic import needs.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SQPUc/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-SQPUc" height="442" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto/PDB Jepang (% QoQ)" aria-label="Column Chart" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1

China’s Trade Surplus Soars Past Expectations

From China, the General Administration of Customs released trade data for the January-February 2026 period on Tuesday, showing impressive performance.

China recorded a trade surplus of USD 213.62 billion, a figure that far exceeded economists’ expectations of USD 196.6 billion. The performance continued a positive trend after a record annual surplus in 2025.

This achievement was driven by a 21.8% year-on-year (yoy) surge in export value to USD 656.58 billion, the fastest growth rate since October 2021.

At the same time, import value also rose significantly by 19.8% to USD 442.96 billion, indicating strong domestic demand ahead of and during the Lunar New Year holiday period.

China’s strong trade performance at the start of the year provides a positive signal for global supply chains, and this data is projected to be one of the important pillars in bilateral negotiations ahead of the planned visit of the U.S. President to Beijing later this month.

Strong Domestic Consumption, Indonesian Retail Sales Up 5.7%

Switching to domestic macroeconomic indicators, Bank Indonesia released the Real Sales Index (IPR) for January 2026 yesterday, recording growth of 5.7% (year-on-year), accelerating from 3.5% growth in December.

This acceleration confirms that the momentum of household consumption in Indonesia remains strong at the beginning of the year with inflation slightly deviating from expectations annually in January.

The increase in retail sales was mainly supported by growth in the Culture and Recreation Goods group, which jumped 15.9%, and the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco group, which rose 8.1%.

Although on a monthly basis (mtm) retail sales performance experienced a reasonable contraction of 2.7% due to the normalization of activity after the year-end holidays, Bank Indonesia projects that retail sales prospects will return to strengthen by 6.9% yoy in the next observation period.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WhIRK/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-WhIRK" height="442" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Pertumbuhan Indeks Penjualan Ritel (% yoy)" aria-label="Column Chart" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1

Transparency of Share Ownership Strengthens Credibility of Indonesian Capital Market

In the realm of domestic capital market governance, PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) and PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI) continue to promote initiatives for public information disclosure.

Referring to Tuesday’s reporting, the stock exchange authorities are now routinely publishing data on the ownership of shares of listed companies with ownership above 1%.

This policy, designed to minimize information asymmetry in the market, is a follow-up to regulations from the Financial Services Authority (OJK).

For analysts and investors, the availability of structured and easily accessible shareholder data is an essential component that can be combined with other fundamental metrics, such as cash flow and corporate profits, to generate rational and measurable investment decisions.

This step aligns the Indonesian capital market more closely with international Good Corporate Governance (GCG) standards.

Foto: Suasana seminar acara Market Outlook 2026 di Bursa Efek Indonesia, Jakarta, Selasa (3/3/2026). (CNBC Indonesia/Faisal Rahman)

Selection of OJK Commissioners

The high volatility in global financial markets due to geopolitical uncertainty has had a direct impact on domestic policy, increasing volatility in domestic financial markets.

The process of selecting members of the OJK Board of Commissioners for the new period has been accelerated, shortening various previously scheduled selection stages by the Selection Committee until the end of March 2026.

Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa emphasized that this acceleration was purely driven by the conditions of the financial market, where the turmoil of war and fluctuating oil prices demanded a faster presence of a definitive OJK leadership to maintain the stability of the financial services sector.

Following this, Commission XI of the DPR will immediately conduct a fit and proper test on 10 presidential nominees on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, which previously included 20 candidates who passed the initial selection.

Five selected names will be determined on the same day, to then be ratified at a DPR Plenary Session the following day, Thursday, March 12, 2026.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UJMjw/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-UJMjw" height="1166" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="20 Kandidat Calon Ketua OJK" aria-label="Table" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1

Contradictory Signals Regarding the End of the US-Iran War

From the geopolitical arena, market sentiment throughout Tuesday was heavily influenced by the evolving dynamics related to the conflict between the United States and Iran. The situation on the ground presented very contradictory signals.

On one hand, the U.S. President indicated that military operations in the region would end soon. U.S. Authorities even considered lifting some sanctions against Russian oil to curb the volatility of energy prices globally.

However, the reality on the battlefield showed continued escalation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi officially rejected the option of negotiations and reaffirmed his military readiness to continue attacks.

At the same time, Israeli military forces reportedly launched another airstrike, triggering fighter jet activity and explosions in Iranian airspace, while the United Arab Emirates stated it had intercepted a projectile attack in its territory.

The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the conflict continues to put risk pressure on global investment instruments due to increased risk premiums on goods and services in global markets, especially in commodity prices.

Presiden AS Donald Trump menyampaikan pidato di Pelabuhan Corpus Christi di Corpus Christi, Texas, AS, 27 Februari 2026. (REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz)Foto: Presiden AS Donald Trump menyampaikan pidato di Pelabuhan Corpus Christi di Corpus Christi, Texas, AS, 27 Februari 2026. (REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz)

Ultimatum to Block the Strait of Hormuz and Threat of Double Retaliation

The biggest threat to global macroeconomic stability currently centers on the energy logistics route. On Tuesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran reaffirmed the ultimatum that it would not allow oil shipments from the Middle East as long as attacks continue.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a lifeline for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply – U.S. Authorities issued a stern warning.

Washington stated it was prepared to launch a retaliatory strike 20 times more destructive if oil flows were disrupted. The high military tension had previously triggered a surge in Brent crude oil prices by 29% at the start of the week.

In addition to burdening the trade balances of importing countries, the escalation began to trigger domestic concerns in the U.S. About rising living costs, as reflected in polls where a majority of the public projected rising fuel prices in the near future.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cnmRa/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-cnmRa" height="415" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Pergerakan Harga Minyak Dunia (US$/barel)" aria-label="Line chart" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1"></p> <p data-path-to-node="22"><strong>Markets Await Release of U.S. Inflation and Core Inflation Data Tonight</strong></p> <p data-path-to-node="23">After accumulating sentiment from Tuesday’s data releases and tensions in the Middle East, the focus of all market participants on Wednesday will center on the release of U.S. Inflation and core inflation data for February, scheduled for release this evening.</p> <p data-path-to-node="23">Both components are a key indicator underlying the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction in determining the direction of interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18-19, Indonesia time.</p> <p data-path-to-node="23">next week there will be many announcements of central bank interest rates, including The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and People's Bank of China.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24">The current market consensus estimates that overall U.S. Inflation will remain at 2.4% year-on-year, while core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is projected to remain stable at 2.5%.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24">Tonight’s data release is crucial given that the surge in oil prices due to the war could alter the trajectory of disinflation in the U.S.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24">If the actual inflation and core inflation data show persistent higher prices than expected, the Fed is likely to be forced to maintain a high interest rate regime for longer.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24">This scenario could trigger a strengthening of the U.S. Dollar and bond yields, which in turn will put pressure on stock market valuations and emerging market currencies tomorrow.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24">However, this war must still be monitored because it has the potential to disrupt the world order and conventional economic theories that have existed in recent times.</p> <p data-path-to-node="24"><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CTr3l/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-CTr3l" height="419" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Inflasi AS (% YoY)" aria-label="Line chart" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1[/embed] </p> <p><strong>The following is a schedule of events and data releases for today:</strong></p> <ul> <li>U.S. Inflation February 2026</li> <li> <p><span>The Coordinating Minister for Food will chair a limited meeting on a number of issues at the Coordinating Ministry for Food, Central Jakarta</span></p> </li> <li> <p>Launching of KUR for Indonesian Migrant Workers at the KH Abdurrahman Wahid Hall, BP2MI/KP2MI office, Pancoran, Jakarta</p> </li> <li> <p>Inspection of readiness for the Lebaran transportation period at Terminal 3, Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Tangerang, Banten</p> </li> <li> <p>Fit and Proper Test for candidates for the OJK Board of Commissioners in the Commission XI DPR meeting room, Nusantara I Building, Senayan, Central Jakarta</p> </li> <li> <p>APBN KiTa Press Conference for the March 2026 edition at the Djuanda Hall, Ministry of Finance office, Jakarta Pusat</p> </li> <li> <p>Coordination meeting regarding the implementation of PP TUNAS at the Ministry of Communication and Digital, Jakarta Pusat.</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong><span>The following is a schedule of domestic issuer agendas today:</span><br/></strong></p> <ul> <li><span><span>Notification of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of PT Pradiksi Gunatama Tbk</span></span></li> <li><span><span>Notification of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk</span></span></li> </ul> <p><span><span><strong>The following are a number of national economic indicators:</strong><br/></span></span></p> <p><span><span><strong>https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9lRBF/1/" id="datawrapper-chart-9lRBF" height="375" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Indikator Ekonomi Indonesia Terkini" aria-label="Table" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" data-external="1

Disclaimer: This article is a journalistic product representing the views of CNBC Indonesia Research. This analysis is not intended to encourage readers to buy, hold, or sell related products or investment sectors. The decision is entirely up to the reader, so we are not responsible for any losses or profits arising from that decision.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH

[email protected]

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