Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran Saturday morning, escalating tensions in a region already on edge. The attacks prompted a swift response from Iran, with missile strikes targeting Israel and reports of explosions in several other Middle Eastern countries.
Iran responded to the attacks with missile strikes against Israel. Explosions were also reported in several other countries across the Middle East.
The price of oil could rise when markets open Monday, according to Sara Midtgaard, Nordea’s macro and foreign exchange strategist.
She explained that much of the concern centers around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which large quantities of oil and gas are shipped.
“The immediate effect on the markets on Monday will be a rise in the oil price,” Midtgaard told Nettavisen.
Hormuz Strait is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and gas. Fears of a shutdown could send oil prices higher, according to Nordea senior macro and foreign exchange strategist Sara Midtgaard. Photo: Thomas Fure / NTB
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She explained that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.
“Around 30 percent of the world’s transport of oil and gas is shipped daily through that passage,” she said.
If it becomes dangerous to sail there, ships may refrain from transporting oil and gas, potentially reducing supply and driving up prices.
“The market will be afraid that ships will not dare to transport oil and gas through that passage. This could create a clear supply challenge in the oil market,” Midtgaard said.
A third of the world’s oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. Concerns about disruptions could drive up oil prices, according to Nordea senior macro and foreign exchange strategist Sara Midtgaard. Photo: Kamran Jebreili / AP / NTB
She added that both the fear of a closure and an actual closure could have the same effect.
“Both will be able to push the oil price up,” she said.
Updated: Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz
The European Union’s maritime security operation Aspides reported that vessels have received a message from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stating that ships are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
An employee of Aspides stated that several vessels have received VHF messages from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stating that “no ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.” NTB reported the information at 5:00 PM local time.
Several oil companies have halted shipments
On Saturday afternoon, Reuters reported that several major oil companies have already halted shipments of crude oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the outbreak of war. Reuters
According to Reuters sources, several transport ships will remain docked for several days.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important routes for oil transport. More than 14 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2025.
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Some is already priced in
Midtgaard also believes that some of the tension has already been “priced in” to the oil price, as many have expected an attack could come.
“There has been a risk premium in the oil price. That means the oil price has been higher than supply and demand alone would suggest,” she said.
She pointed out that there has actually been more oil available than demand would suggest, but the price has still risen.
“There has actually been a surplus of supply in the oil market, and yet we have seen the oil price rise. The increase in January and February can almost entirely be attributed to geopolitical uncertainty,” Midtgaard said.
The oil price rose last week on rumors that an attack could be imminent, and closed at $73.1 a barrel Friday evening, the highest level since last summer.
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Up to $100 a barrel
At the same time, she does not think everything has been taken into account, especially a scenario with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not fully priced in,” she said.
Midtgaard said she believes the oil price will rise when trading begins on Monday.
“I think we will see the oil price increase Monday morning as a result of this,” she said.
She also pointed out that analysts have pointed to large fluctuations if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
“Some say you could see oil prices up to $100 a barrel with a full blockade. I’m not saying we’ll see $100 on Monday, but the upside risk is clearly present,” Midtgaard said.
Higher oil prices could also affect Norway in other ways. Midtgaard said such a situation could strengthen the Norwegian krone.
“That would strengthen the krone,” she said.
But she stresses that a strong krone is not necessarily good for the Norwegian economy.
“A strong exchange rate is not positive for the export sector in Norway or wage growth,” Midtgaard said.
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Threatened to resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea
Two spokespersons for the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened earlier Saturday to resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
The Houthis ended their previous attacks on ships in the Red Sea as part of an agreement with the Trump administration, where the US halted its attacks on the Houthis.
“Past experience shows that the Houthi militia has both the will and the ability to hit shipping, and new threats must be taken seriously,” said Audun Halvorsen, director of security and preparedness at the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, to E24.
