Trhy reagujú na konflikt v Iráne. (Zdroj: gettyimages.com, X/War Monitor)
BRATISLAVA – Eskalácia napätia na Blízkom východe priniesla prudkú reakciu finančných trhov. V sobotu 28. Februára 2026 zaútočili Izrael a USA na Irán. Účasť americkej armády potvrdil prezident Donald Trump. Teherán následne odpovedal raketovými útokmi na Izrael aj na vojenské zariadenia USA v Katare, Bahrajne, Kuvajte a Spojených arabských emirátoch. Ako na toto celé zareagujú medzinárodné trhy?
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East triggered a swift response from financial markets on Saturday, February 28, 2026, following strikes by Israel and the United States against Iran. U.S. Military involvement was confirmed by President Donald Trump. Tehran retaliated with missile attacks targeting both Israel and U.S. Military installations in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Investors are now assessing the potential impact on global markets.
Pavel Peterka, chief analyst for the Czech Republic and Slovakia at XTB, outlined the potential economic consequences.
The official reason given for the operation is Iran’s unwillingness to halt its uranium enrichment program, which, combined with the development of medium-range missiles, could lead to the production of a nuclear weapon.
Oil Prices Lead the Initial Response, Short-Term Impacts Certain
According to the chief analyst, it is currently extremely difficult to accurately quantify the economic impacts. The intensity, scope, and duration of the conflict will be decisive. However, it is already clear which segments will react first. “The primary channel through which the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Iran will affect the global economy is oil. Markets have already been exhibiting nervousness in recent weeks, leading to rising oil prices under increased risk. We can expect oil prices to rise, at least in the short term,” Peterka stated.
Prepare for Higher Gasoline Prices
Peterka indicated that higher oil prices will quickly translate into increased prices for motor fuels. Gasoline and diesel in Slovakia and the Czech Republic are therefore expected to become more expensive. An increase of 1 to 3 cents per liter at Slovak gas stations is anticipated in the coming days in response to high market volatility.
Ilustračné foto (Zdroj: Getty Images)
Longer Conflict, Higher Inflation
The impact extends beyond the direct effect on energy costs. Rising energy prices will increase transportation costs, which will gradually be reflected in the prices of goods. A more significant increase in inflation, however, would likely occur with a longer and more intense conflict. Alongside oil, prices for gas and other energy commodities could also rise, as markets are closely interconnected.
“Higher inflationary pressures could lead to a reassessment of interest rate outlooks, which negatively impacts growth stocks, for example in the technology sector. U.S. Stocks closed with a slight loss on Friday. This loss will likely continue on Monday due to an increase in ‘risk-off’ sentiment, or a lower willingness of investors to grab risks,” XTB analyst Peterka said.
Demand for risky assets is also expected to cool, while demand for safe havens will increase. This suggests a potential rise in gold prices and other safe-haven assets. Increased risks in global markets also typically put pressure on the weakening of riskier currencies, such as the Czech koruna.
