Disruptions to oil flows stemming from escalating tensions between the U.S. And Israel with Iran are sending shockwaves through the energy sector, with potential for prolonged impacts, according to reports from Wall Street firms.
Goldman Sachs estimates that daily oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted to just 600,000 barrels since the start of the conflict, a significant drop from the typical 19 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, and reduced capacity there quickly translates to market pressure.
JP Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva projects that crude supply cuts could reach 12 million barrels per day by the end of next week, potentially triggering shortages of diesel, jet fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha. This anticipated shortfall is already influencing pricing dynamics across the energy complex.
Brent crude oil prices have already surpassed $100 per barrel, and analysts warn they could climb to or exceed the $128 peak seen in 2022, or even the record $147 reached in 2008. The surge reflects growing concerns about supply security and the potential for further escalation.
RBC Capital Markets, a Canadian financial services and analysis firm, anticipates that oil prices will exceed those previous highs. Helima Croft, the firm’s head of commodity strategy, indicated they are revising their price estimates upward and expect the crisis to extend well into the spring.
In the U.S., gasoline prices have already risen to $3.63 per gallon and are nearing $4 after 13 consecutive days of increases. This disruption has also led to visible scarcity in physical refined product markets, signaling immediate impacts on consumers.
Asian countries are expected to be the most heavily affected due to their reliance on energy imports and other goods transported through the strait. Experts like Ben Cahill, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., believe the energy crisis will begin to alter consumer behavior, likely leading to reduced discretionary air and road travel, as well as panic buying.
(RT)
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