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Iran Conflict Risk: US, Israel & Trump’s Threat of Military Action

by John Smith - World Editor
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Tensions Rise as U.S. Considers Military Action Against Iran

Geneva – Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain precarious as the possibility of military conflict escalates, with reports suggesting a potential U.S.-led operation could occur within weeks. The heightened tensions come amid stalled talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, and as concerns grow over Iran’s regional activities and nuclear program. This development underscores growing instability in the Middle East and raises fears of a wider conflict.

According to sources cited by Il Sole 24 ORE, there is a 90% probability of a U.S. Attack on Iran. Axios reported that the Trump administration is “closer to a large-scale war in the Middle East than most Americans realize.” The potential operation, reportedly planned in conjunction with Israel, would be significantly larger than previous engagements and could last for weeks.

The escalating threat comes as a second round of indirect negotiations between the U.S. And Iran concluded in Geneva on February 18, 2026. While initial reports indicated some progress, Washington has emphasized that significant obstacles remain. TG24 reported that both sides are expected to meet again, though the location and timing of future talks are yet to be determined.

Despite the ongoing diplomatic efforts, rhetoric from Tehran has remained defiant. Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly threatened to “sink their ships,” signaling a willingness to escalate tensions if necessary. This statement, coupled with reports of a parliamentarian tearing up a photograph of the Italian President, highlights the deep-seated animosity between the two nations.

President Trump’s frustration with the lack of progress in negotiations is reportedly a key driver of the increased military posturing. Il Tempo reported that Trump is “fed up” with the situation and is increasingly inclined to authorize a military strike. A source close to the President indicated a “90% chance of seeing concrete action in the coming weeks.”

The U.S. State Department has also imposed new visa restrictions on 18 Iranian officials and leaders in the telecommunications sector, accusing them of complicity in human rights violations, specifically those that suppress freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. The announcement could influence future diplomatic talks and further complicate the already strained relationship between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to assert its right to develop a “peaceful” nuclear program, while rejecting demands to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. RaiNews reported on Iran’s position regarding nuclear development.

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