Dubai/Tel Aviv – The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Tuesday that it would prevent “a single liter of oil” from being shipped from the Middle East if U.S. And Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from former President Donald Trump that the United States would strike Iran with even greater force if it blocked exports.
Despite the defiant rhetoric from both sides, investors heavily bet Tuesday that Trump would end the war soon, before unprecedented disruption to energy supplies triggered a global economic collapse.
After describing the war as “virtually over, largely,” the historic surge in crude oil prices seen Monday began to reverse. Asian and European stock markets rebounded Tuesday following earlier sharp declines.
However, on the ground, there were no signs of de-escalation. Residents in Tehran contacted by Reuters described the overnight American and Israeli bombardment of the capital as the most intense since the war began.
“It was like hell,” one resident said by phone, requesting anonymity for security reasons. “They were bombing everywhere, every part of Tehran… My children are afraid to sleep now. We have nowhere to go.”
The Israeli military stated it had struck a weapons research and development facility in Tehran, as part of a wave of overnight strikes on the Iranian capital, and launched further attacks Tuesday.
A source familiar with Israeli war plans told Reuters the military is attempting to inflict as much damage as possible before a window for further strikes closes, anticipating Trump may end the conflict at any time.
* Trump Briefing Appeared to Reassure Markets
Iran refused to comply with Trump’s demand that it allow the United States to select its new leadership, instead appointing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war.
However, Trump held a press conference Monday that appeared to reassure markets, stating he would halt the war before it caused an economic crisis similar to those following oil shocks in the Middle East during the 1970s.
He said the United States had already inflicted significant damage on Iran and predicted the conflict would end before the four-week timeframe he initially set.
Trump did not define what he would consider a victory, but he did not repeat Monday’s statements that Iran must accept “unconditional surrender” and allow him to choose its leader.
* Unprecedented Disruption
The war has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas liquids pass, and producers have run out of storage capacity and stopped pumping.
In the latest reported attacks, occurring almost daily on ships, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that the crew of a bulk carrier in the Gulf reported seeing an impact and hearing a loud bang near the vessel.
After Iran chose its new leader, oil prices briefly rose to nearly $120 a barrel Monday. But by 11:00 GMT Tuesday, Brent crude had settled around $92, indicating traders now expect the disruptions to end soon.
Trump said Monday that U.S. Military force was sufficient to maintain the flow of oil. He added that if Iran prevented oil from passing through the Strait, “we will hit them harder than they have ever been hit before.”
A spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps dismissed Trump’s statements, saying Tehran would not allow “a single liter” of oil to be shipped from the Middle East to the United States or its allies as long as American and Israeli attacks continued.
“We will determine the end of the war,” the spokesperson said.
Trump responded on his Truth Social platform, “If Iran does anything to stop oil from going through the Hormuz Strait, the United States will hit them 20 times harder than it has hit them before.”
* Quick End to War May Preserve Iranian Leaders in Power
Ending the war quickly to allow oil flows to resume may prevent the overthrow of Iran’s leadership, which organized large rallies Monday in support of the new Supreme Leader.
Some Iranians publicly celebrated the death of the elder Khamenei, following weeks of security forces killing thousands during the suppression of anti-government protests – the worst internal unrest in Iran since the 1979 revolution.
There have been no signs of anti-government activity since then amid fears that protesting under attack would be unsafe.
Despite Trump’s demand to have a say in who leads Iran, most U.S. Administration officials have said the war’s goal is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and its nuclear program. Israel has explicitly stated it wants to overthrow the clerical rulers in Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday, “Our aspiration is to liberate the Iranian people from the yoke of tyranny.”
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations said American and Israeli attacks since the end of February have killed at least 1,332 Iranian civilians and injured thousands.
Dozens have also been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group, which has launched rockets at Israel in solidarity with Tehran.
Iranian strikes on Israel have killed 11 people. Iran has also targeted U.S. Military bases and diplomatic missions in Gulf states, as well as hotels and closed airports and damaged oil infrastructure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a resumption of talks with the United States was unlikely, citing what he called a “bitter experience” in previous negotiations.
“After three rounds of negotiations, the American team in the talks themselves said that we had made significant progress. However, they decided to attack us. I do not suppose talking to the Americans will be on our agenda anymore,” he said in an interview with BBC.
(Prepared by Amira Zehran for the Arabic bulletin – Edited by Mohamed Alyamani)
