Events in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting global oil prices.Image: keystone
Gasoline prices have barely increased domestically so far, but that could change.
March 7, 2026, 2:05 PMMarch 7, 2026, 2:05 PM
Niklaus Vontobel, Stefan Ehrbar, Pascal Michel / ch media
Former President Donald Trump’s administration has led the United States into a conflict with Iran. The conflict has already claimed the lives of many innocent people. For example, the U.S. Unintentionally struck an Iranian primary school, resulting in approximately 150 deaths and 100 injuries, according to the New York Times. However, the war will also have financial consequences, including in Switzerland.
The global price of crude oil is already significantly higher than before the war began and could rise much further, impacting prices for gasoline and heating oil in Switzerland. “Swiss prices depend entirely on the global market price of crude oil,” says Ueli Bamert, spokesperson for Avenergy Suisse, the association of Swiss mineral oil importers. “If the global oil price rises, gasoline or heating oil will inevitably become more expensive here; if it falls, they will become cheaper – it’s that simple.”
Gas stations typically pass on such oil price increases to customers after about three days, according to energy specialist Laurent Horvath, as reported by the newspaper «Le Nouvelliste». According to figures from the TCS, a liter of 95-octane unleaded gasoline recently cost 1.74 Swiss francs. That figure is likely to rise in the coming days if the escalation in Iran continues. Could the price climb back above 2 Swiss francs, as it did following the war in Ukraine?
That depends on how severely and for how long shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be restricted. Currently, significantly fewer ships are passing through than before the war, at times 80 percent fewer. The news agency Bloomberg headlined: “Iran War Brings Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz to a Standstill.”
The Strait of Hormuz: a strategically significant choke point
image: chm
This has consequences for the oil price. At the beginning of the year, the oil price stood at $60. By the conclude of this week, it was already approaching $90. If the standstill in the Strait of Hormuz continues for another five weeks, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs, the oil price will rise again significantly: a barrel of Brent crude will then cost around $100. Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned in the Financial Times of prices of $150 per barrel in just two to three weeks, which would “bring economies worldwide to their knees.”
However, Swiss motorists are receiving some relief from another source, or at least no further burden.
Currently, freight costs are stable in Switzerland, according to gas station provider Volenergy, alongside distribution and taxes – a crucial cost component. What we have is because Swiss gasoline arrives in the country via the Rhine. If the river carries too little water, ships can load less and freight costs rise. Switzerland experienced this in the summer of 2022 when a severe drought severely restricted Rhine shipping. Because Putin’s war of aggression also drove up oil prices, gasoline prices rose significantly.
The strong Swiss franc also provides some relief. Because crude oil is traded in US dollars, the weakening US currency can contribute to lower prices at the pump.
But what happens in the Strait of Hormuz remains decisive. It is the bottleneck through which a large proportion of Middle Eastern oil reaches the world market. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – all these important producing countries export their oil predominantly through Hormuz. In total, the oil quantities transported through Hormuz account for approximately 20 percent of global oil consumption.
Iran wants to force Trump to withdraw
There are hardly any alternatives. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do have pipelines on land. But their capacities are limited to 5.5 million barrels per day. By comparison, around 20 million barrels are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz every day. And passages can be easily prevented. The strait is only 54 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and the largest tankers, the so-called supertankers, can sometimes only navigate a four-kilometer-wide corridor.
By blocking the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible, Iran wants to force Trump to withdraw. A high oil price harms large parts of the US economy, increases gasoline prices in the US and infuriates Trump’s voters. Trump has therefore announced that he wants to reopen the strait. The US Navy would escort the tankers and also insure them at a favorable rate.
However, it is unlikely that this will lead to a large-scale resumption of shipping traffic. According to the Financial Times, insurance would be extremely expensive. And the danger to life and limb remains. On Thursday, for example, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that they had hit an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf with rockets.
