Fuente de la imagen, Getty Images
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The strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader occurred not in the dead of night, as might be expected, but mid-morning.
This timing was deliberate, stemming from a crucial piece of intelligence that arrived just hours before the operation.
For months, U.S. And Israeli forces had been seeking an opportunity to target a gathering of high-ranking Iranian officials, and learned that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be at a complex in central Tehran on Saturday morning.
Intelligence also pinpointed the location of other senior military and intelligence officials who would be present at the same time.
Both countries had been tracking the movements of the Supreme Leader, who had governed Iran since 1989. Whereas the exact methods used remain classified, former President Donald Trump alluded to the intelligence capabilities employed in a social media post.
“They couldn’t escape our highly sophisticated tracking and intelligence systems,” he commented.
This may have referenced a human source, but is more likely to have involved technical surveillance of individuals.
During a 12-day conflict last June, Israel targeted scientists and officials linked to Iran’s nuclear program, reportedly utilizing penetration of telecommunications systems and mobile phones to monitor individuals’ movements.
This included, at times, tracking the movements of bodyguards connected to high-ranking officials.
Fuente de la imagen, Getty Images
Over the long term, this can help build a “pattern of life” to predict and understand activities, as well as identify moments of vulnerability.
Iran was aware that the Supreme Leader was a target of its adversaries, and the failure to identify and address these vulnerabilities in recent months suggests either a deep failure in Iranian security and counterintelligence, or the ability of Israel and the United States to continue adapting their methods and finding recent ways of tracking.
The Iranians may also have calculated that an attack in broad daylight was less likely. In this case, the intelligence, according to The New York Times, came from the CIA but was handed over to Israel to execute the strike.
The Attack Against the Supreme Leader
There appears to be a division of labor: Israel focusing on attacks against leaders, and the United States on military targets.
The intelligence provided enough information to anticipate the movements of the Supreme Leader and other officials to plan an attack with aircraft capable of firing long-range missiles.
Rather than a single strike against Ayatollah Khamenei, the plan was for the initial bombing to initiate a wider military campaign and was brought forward to accept advantage of the window of opportunity.
Israeli aircraft can take around two hours to reach Tehran, but it is unclear from what distance they fired their munitions.
Reports indicate that Israeli planes used 30 bombs to strike the complex where the Supreme Leader was located at around 9:40 a.m. Local time.
This may have been because the Supreme Leader was using an underground bunker beneath the complex for protection (although it was not one of the regime’s most secure).
Multiple munitions may have been needed to penetrate deep enough and ensure the target was hit.
Other locations in the Iranian capital were also targeted, including the office of President Masoud Pezeshkian, who later issued a statement saying he was safe.
Israel said seven senior Iranian defense officials are among the dead, including Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, and IRGC Commander General Mohammad Pakpour.
As the planes attacked, it was the middle of the night at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where Trump had gathered with some of his top officials to monitor events.
Hours would pass before confirmation arrived that the Supreme Leader had died in the strikes.
Iran was prepared for this possibility, with reports indicating that succession plans were already in place not only for the Supreme Leader, but for a number of senior officials.
That means it remains unclear what this death will mean for the course of the conflict.
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