Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has died following strikes by the United States and Israel, a development that throws the nation and the wider region into a period of uncertainty. The death of Khamenei, who had ruled Iran for nearly four decades, raises questions about the future leadership of the Islamic Republic and could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
According to reports from Al-Jazeera and CNN, the Iranian clerical regime now faces the challenge of finding a successor to Khamenei. The veteran leader, who governed with an iron fist for almost four decades, had not publicly designated an heir.
Instead, the selection will fall to the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 senior clerics. This group has only once before chosen a Supreme Leader since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 – when Khamenei himself was swiftly appointed after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini over three decades ago.
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The government will likely attempt to project stability, with members of the Assembly expected to convene soon to discuss potential candidates before appointing Khamenei’s replacement. Although, it remains unclear whether they will risk meeting given President Donald Trump’s vow that attacks targeting the regime will continue.
Legal experts will need to select a successor who meets the qualifications outlined in the constitution. The new leader must be male, a cleric with political competence, moral authority, and loyalty to the Islamic Republic. The Assembly could interpret the rules to exclude reformist clerics who support greater social freedoms and engagement with the outside world.
Al-Jazeera reported that, prior to his death, Khamenei had provided four names for consideration. However, the identities of those individuals remain unknown.
Another scenario involves a council of four individuals governing the country until a new leader is chosen. Currently, Iran has established a three-person council comprised of the country’s president, the head of the judiciary, and one jurist from the Guardian Council to temporarily assume all leadership duties in Iran.
CNN also outlined several candidates who experts and analysts believe could potentially succeed Khamenei:
Mojtaba Khamenei
The second son of Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, is known to wield significant influence behind the scenes and maintains strong ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s most powerful military body, as well as the Basij volunteer paramilitary force. However, succession from father to son is unpopular among Shia Muslim clerics and particularly within revolutionary Iran following the overthrow of a widely detested monarchy.
An additional obstacle is that Mojtaba is not a high-ranking cleric and holds no official position within the regime. He was sanctioned by the U.S. In 2019.
Alireza Arafi
A lesser-known figure, Alireza Arafi, 67, is a prominent cleric with a track record in government institutions and a trusted associate of Khamenei. He currently serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the influential Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and legislation passed by parliament. He also heads Iran’s seminary system.
According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, Khamenei’s willingness to appoint Arafi to senior and strategic positions suggests he has “great confidence in his bureaucratic abilities.” However, Arafi is not known as an influential political figure and lacks close ties to security agencies.
He is described as proficient in technology and fluent in Arabic, and English. He is also an active writer, having published 24 books and articles.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri
Mirbagheri, 60, is a hardline cleric and a member of the Assembly of Experts representing the most conservative wing of the clergy. He recently reportedly justified the high death toll in the Israel-Gaza war by stating that the deaths of even half the world’s population would be “worth it” if it brought closeness to God.
According to IranWire, an activist media outlet, he is strongly anti-Western and believes that conflict between believers and infidels is inevitable. He currently leads the Academy of Islamic Sciences in the holy city of Qom in northern Iran.
Hassan Khomeini (50)
Khomeini is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, giving him religious and revolutionary legitimacy. He serves as the custodian of Khomeini’s mausoleum but has never held public office and appears to have little influence over the country’s security apparatus or ruling elite.
He is known to be less hardline than many of his peers and was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016.
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri
Bushehri, in his 60s, is a senior cleric closely associated with the institutions managing succession, particularly the Assembly of Experts, where he serves as the first deputy chairman. He is described as close to Khamenei but maintains a low profile domestically and is not known to have strong ties with the IRGC.
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(haf/imk)
