The future of the conflict in Iran remains uncertain, with no clear indication of when – or if – it will complete. The situation is fluid, given that Iran is a nation of 90 million people. The country possesses significant economic and military capabilities, and could continue to resist, according to fuel market expert Ojārs Karčevskis during a TV24 broadcast on “Uz līnijas.”
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Concerns have been raised about potential fuel shortages in the region, but information is changing rapidly. Fuel market expert Ojārs Karčevskis noted that predicting fuel prices is more difficult than forecasting the weather.
“There is a possibility that two major oil refineries will have limited access to oil volumes – namely, the Orlen refinery in Mažeiķi and Neste in Porvoo, Finland. Of course, there are also deliveries by ship, but if oil supplies start to dwindle, there will be problems with fuel,” Karčevskis said.
A representative of the Orlen Group has affirmed that there are no disruptions to supplies and no risks, and that everything is proceeding according to schedule – a sentiment echoed by Karčevskis, who stated, “deliveries are happening today, yes!”
Regarding the rapid increase in fuel prices, Karčevskis explained that it’s not a matter of where the fuel is purchased, but rather that prices are determined by exchange rates in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, and traders follow these prices regardless of the refinery’s location.
“But the fact remains – if prices rise, they shoot up like a rocket, but fall slowly. Now that the conflict has begun, all the risks, sunken ships, drones flying, Dubai in chaos, it’s hard to understand, so the feeling that prices are rising rapidly at gas stations – no, prices are rising rapidly worldwide, where those risks exist,” the expert noted.
Karčevskis added that the current increase in demand for fuel is not a reason to raise prices. Meanwhile, economist Edgars Čerkovsis told TV24’s “Dienas personība” that traders decide the prices themselves, and much depends on demand – everything also depends on how we behave ourselves: if we buy, the price will rise.
One thing is clear – things will not be as they were, Karčevskis said: “We don’t have a crystal ball, but we need to be prudent with our spending and all those things we might not need to buy today!”
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