Istanbul and the surrounding Marmara region are anticipating a brief period of snowfall between December 28th and January 2nd, according to forecasts from the Kandilli Observatory and meteorology Laboratory. While the precipitation offers potential respite, it arrives as Turkey confronts a worsening drought crisis with reservoir levels-currently at 18% in Istanbul-reaching a decade low. Experts caution the snowfall is not expected to significantly alter the long-term outlook for a drier-than-average winter, and highlight concerns about increasing temperature fluctuations as a potential indicator of climate change.
Istanbul and the wider Marmara region are bracing for a period of snowfall between December 28 and January 2, according to a meteorologist with the Kandilli Observatory and Meteorology Laboratory. The forecast comes as Turkey grapples with concerns over a developing drought, with reservoir levels already significantly below average.
Adil Tek, a meteorology engineer at the observatory, said that current atmospheric models predict “fluffy” snowfall during that timeframe, though the cold snap is expected to last only four to five days before temperatures rise again. “According to our estimations, we will see heavy snowfall in the Marmara region between December 28 and January 2,” Tek said. “But it’s a 4-5 day period. After that, we will see temperatures rise again.”
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Tek explained that the cold air mass is expected to arrive from the north starting December 28, impacting Istanbul and much of the Marmara region. He noted that precipitation is likely to begin as rain before transitioning to snow on December 29 and 30, potentially continuing through January 1 and 2.
“Some atmospheric models show this snowfall, while others do not,” Tek said, referencing the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. “In that model, the cold air coming from the north starting on the 28th will begin to affect Istanbul, along with the Marmara region and a large part of the country. It will lower temperatures. Rain will start first, then this rain will turn into snowfall on the 29th and 30th. The snowfall will continue on the 30th and the 1st and 2nd, and after the 2nd, this system will lose its effect. Approximately a 4-5 day rainy weather will affect Istanbul and the Marmara, especially the north and east of the country.”
While the forecast suggests a brief period of winter weather, Tek cautioned that it doesn’t necessarily indicate a particularly harsh winter overall. “This snowfall does not mean that the winter will be very severe. The winter will continue to be drier than average in terms of temperature,” he stated.
Climate Change Concerns
Tek also pointed to rising temperatures as a potential indicator of climate change. “We have seen these temperature values in previous years. There is high pressure above us, which is causing an increase in daytime temperatures. Night temperatures are dropping a bit more. The difference between day and night temperatures is starting to increase. This is due to the high pressure and the structure formed by what we call the ‘heat dome’ above us. These temperatures have been seen in previous years. However, it is worth noting that the frequency of this has increased in this period, which is one of the important signs of climate change.”
Rain Expected Before the Cold
Before the potential snowfall, rain is expected to return to the region. “There will be rain starting in the middle of the month, especially in the last week of the month. This is a rainy system coming from the Eastern Mediterranean. It doesn’t lower the temperatures much, as it’s air from the Eastern Mediterranean. The rain will start in the southern parts of the Aegean and will be effective from Saturday night and Sunday. This system will then affect the northern parts of the country. We will see rain in the Marmara region as well. The system will move eastward, leaving rain in Central Anatolia, the Mediterranean, and Western and Central Black Sea regions. This rainy system is expected to show its effect in the form of rain on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. In the interior regions, especially in places with an altitude of over 2,000 meters, the precipitation will turn into snow.”
Drought Conditions Worsen
The forecast comes as Turkey faces increasingly dire drought conditions. Tek highlighted that dam levels in Istanbul are at their lowest in the past decade, currently around 18%. “We are heading towards a drought. At this time, the dam level in Istanbul is much lower than in the past 10 years. It has dropped to around 18%. In Ankara, it is at 1.7 levels, and in Izmir, it is also at very low levels in these three major cities. Dam levels have also decreased in other cities due to drought.”
While December rainfall is expected to be around 75% of the average, January is forecast to be dry. “February rainfall is around the seasonal norms, but rainfall does not increase much. We are heading towards a drought. There are major risks ahead. Looking back from past months and from the summer months to today, we have experienced a major drought. Rainfall across the country has decreased by almost 50%. The biggest problem right now is drought, which appears to be the biggest natural disaster. We need a strategic plan and increased public awareness on this issue.”
Kaynak: DHA
