Fitch Ratings has affirmed Italy’s credit rating at ‘BBB+’ with a stable outlook, the international ratings agency announced on March 13, 2026. The rating reflects Italy’s large, diversified, and high value-added economy, as well as the stability benefits derived from its membership in the European Union and the Eurozone.
Fitch’s Outlook for Italy
However, Fitch noted these strengths are offset by Italy’s very high level of public debt and limited medium-term growth prospects, factors that reduce fiscal flexibility and constrain the country’s ability to reduce its debt burden. The agency indicated that Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 137.1% in 2025, slightly above their previous forecast of 136.5%.
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Fitch forecasts the debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 137.8% in 2026 before beginning a downward trajectory. The agency anticipates at least a 1 percentage point reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio annually starting in 2027, driven by sustained primary surpluses and moderate nominal growth. Italy’s deficit-to-GDP ratio decreased to 3.1% in 2025, compared to 3.4% in 2024, in line with both government expectations and Fitch’s projections. Further moderate improvements are expected, with the deficit reaching 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.
