Latvia vs Gibraltar: Coach’s Future on the Line in Nations League Playoff

Several football experts have offered mixed assessments of Nikolato’s performance thus far. Latvia, under Nikolato’s leadership, has played 20 matches, averaging 0.8 points per game, with three wins, ten losses, and seven draws.

Former national team captain Kaspars Gorkšs believes the team’s results have been largely as expected. “These are roughly the results that Latvian fans anticipated from the national team,” Gorkšs stated.

FK Metta head coach Andris Riherts echoed that sentiment, saying, “the balance is middling – 10 losses and 10 games without a loss. Of course, there have only been three wins.”

Māris Verpakovskis, Latvia’s all-time leading goalscorer and FK RFS General Director, described the situation as “rather bleak.”

“Three wins in 20 games is simply too few, and the losses weren’t all against top teams. The wins weren’t exclusively against powerhouses either,” Verpakovskis explained.

Gorkšs also pointed out that Nikolato has sometimes made surprising tactical decisions, such as substituting two players before a defensive set piece – a move he found illogical.

Yet, Verpakovskis praised the changes in the team’s style of play. “To be honest, it’s not as terrible as it looks on paper. We find some positive things I like. One of them is that we’re no longer afraid to play with the ball.”

Riherts suggested that Nikolato may not have received sufficient support, potentially lacking assistant coaches with a deeper understanding of the local football scene. “Aleksandrs Cauņa, of course, deserves respect, he knows the atmosphere within the national team, but his focus is on youth football,” Riherts added.

Statistics only tell part of the story, especially when evaluating performance.

Opinions differ on whether Nikolato has established a clear identity for the national team during his two-year tenure.

“Paolo Nikolato’s philosophy is clear. He wants players who can play with the ball, who know how, and who seek to,” Riherts said. “Regarding a recognizable style of play, I think everyone understands what he wants. What we want when building from the back, what we want in midfield when controlling the ball. Perhaps we necessitate to function more on the final third.”

“In this time, a distinct Latvian national team playing identity hasn’t really emerged. I couldn’t say how we, as Latvia, want to play, what our direction is for development as a national team. That’s not really noticeable,” Gorkšs commented.

“The idea is clear, and I like it. Sometimes maybe we overdo it, like in the home game against England where we lost 0-5. We were punished two, if not three times, after trying to build from the back. Of course, that risk always needs to be assessed, how much we play that build-up. I can’t fault Nikolato for trying. Our defenders have become much more confident with the ball, as have the midfielders, and they don’t just think about getting rid of it quickly,” Verpakovskis believes.

The team has struggled with goalscoring, netting just 12 goals in 20 matches.

Verpakovskis emphasized that individual skill plays a significant role in the final third of the field, and that it’s the most difficult aspect of the game for a coach to teach and instill in training.

“We still don’t quite know what to do in that final third near the opponent’s goal, and we don’t know how to break down the opponent’s defense. We get to a certain point with the build-up, and then it seems like we run out of ideas and don’t know what to do,” Verpakovskis revealed.

Riherts believes that creativity is crucial, but feels the Latvian national team players don’t have a major problem in that area. Confidence, however, is something that needs to be built through the work process.

Latvia’s defense under Nikolato has been vulnerable, conceding 30 goals in 20 matches.

Gorkšs noted that defenders and goalkeepers were once consistently playing in foreign leagues, but that trend is no longer as pronounced.

Riherts pointed out that a consistent lineup in defense has been rare. “He wants to play with three defenders, then puts in three new ones again – that doesn’t provide stability,” Riherts noted.

The Latvian Football Federation extended Nikolato’s contract until April 2025 last December, a four-month extension, and both parties will return to the negotiating table after the matches against Gibraltar.

“It’s quite common in modern sport for a coach to have their future tied to a couple of games, and for that to be made public,” Verpakovskis emphasized. “As far as I know, behind the scenes, the financial aspect was discussed quite actively. I understand that the contract conditions will be fulfilled after the result, and I think that’s normal.”

Gorkšs believes that

few experienced and strong specialists would allow their future employment to be put to the test in a couple of games and announce it publicly.

“Most likely, that wouldn’t happen with any experienced and strong specialist,” Gorkšs added.

Riherts doesn’t believe a separation from Nikolato would be the best solution. “Change – perhaps that wouldn’t be right, considering we chose a course to create our identity in a different way, due to the fact that Latvian football was previously associated with patiently waiting for a moment and then scoring,” Riherts said. “Here, we want to build a different mentality, which is not simple.”

Nikolato’s fate will be decided in two matches against Gibraltar, scheduled for March 26 away and five days later at home.