Declining vaccination rates are raising concerns among public health officials, and new research quantifies the potential consequences. A study published in February by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health suggests that a 1% annual decrease in measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates over the next five years could lead to 17,000 additional measles cases, 4,000 hospitalizations, and 36 deaths each year in the United States.
The findings, based on a model created in partnership with the Common Health Coalition, a non-profit organization advocating for healthcare reform, highlight the critical importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage. This research underscores the potential for preventable outbreaks when vaccination rates fall.
Highly Contagious Disease
Measles is known as one of the most contagious diseases in the world. An infected person can spread the virus to as many as 18 others, compared to an average of 2 people for the flu. Currently, there is no specific treatment for measles, making vaccination the most effective preventative measure.
While a 95% vaccination rate – the threshold long recommended by public health authorities – offers strong protection, lower rates increase the risk of transmission, particularly within communities with lower vaccination coverage due to cultural or religious reasons. Recent outbreaks in the U.S. And Canada over the past two years demonstrate this vulnerability.
The economic impact of increased measles cases is also significant. Researchers estimate that the projected rise in cases could result in an additional $1.5 billion in healthcare costs annually, according to the Yale University model and further analysis.
Current trends align with the model’s projections. After averaging 180 reported measles cases annually for two decades, the U.S. Saw over 2,200 cases in 2025. Data from early 2026 suggests this number could be surpassed, with over 600 cases reported by the end of January, 1,136 by the end of February, and 1,362 cases reported as of March 12th – 92% of whom were unvaccinated.
Canada is also experiencing a resurgence of measles. Alberta recorded approximately 2,000 cases in 2025, more than doubling its previous record from 1986, while Ontario reported 2,400 cases, a significant increase from the 101 cases recorded throughout the entire decade of 2013-2023 according to recent reports.
The Common Health Coalition’s report emphasizes that “the convergence of multiple changes to policies in 2025 and 2026” – referencing recent decisions made in Washington – “will likely accelerate the current decline in childhood vaccination coverage.”
