German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing for a high-stakes trip to Beijing this week, as economic ties between Germany and China face increasing scrutiny. The visit comes as Berlin grapples with a significant trade deficit and questions the long-held belief that closer economic engagement would lead to political change in China.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz spent two hours Monday evening, roughly a week before his departure for China, preparing for the trip at the Chancellery. He met with China experts, including sinologist Stephan Thome, whose book on tensions in the Taiwan Strait Merz had read, and Jörg Wuttke, the former long-term president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and now a partner at DGA–Albright Stonebridge Group.
Those present at the meeting said Merz asked many precise questions, listened attentively, and took numerous notes. He was particularly interested in how to establish a connection with Xi Jinping during their one-on-one meeting. He was recommended to read “Breakneck” by Dan Wang, which contrasts the Western, legally-driven system with a Chinese state understanding dominated by engineers.
Merz’s visit to Beijing comes amid a notable shift in international relations. In recent weeks, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer traveled to the Chinese capital, both seeking to stabilize relations after years of distance. Now, Merz is following suit.
More than one million jobs in Germany depend on exports to China. Simultaneously, official EU data reveals a significant economic asymmetry: in 2024, the European Union exported goods worth approximately €213 billion to China, while imports from China totaled around €519 billion. This results in a trade deficit exceeding €300 billion.
Just a few years ago, Berlin spoke of “de-risking” – deliberately reducing dependencies. Today, economic ties continue to grow, while the political tone has develop into more assertive.
Criticism of China’s ‘Global Ambition’
Merz is scheduled to travel to China for three days beginning February 24. Beijing has noted that the Chancellor first visited India and prioritized other Asian nations before heading to China. Such travel sequences are seen as political signals, and Merz’s later arrival in Beijing is interpreted as a sign of a more distant approach than under Angela Merkel or Olaf Scholz.
Merz has already set the tone in terms of content. In a foreign policy address at the Körber Foundation on January 23, 2025, he spoke of an “emerging era of a fresh systemic conflict between liberal democracies on the one hand and anti-liberal autocracies.” He said that over the past decade, an “axis of autocracies” had formed, destabilizing the world. This axis, he stated, included Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
At the Munich Security Conference, he sharpened his tone, stating that China is pursuing a “global claim to shape events” and reinterpreting the international order in its own terms. Beijing, he added, systematically exploits economic dependencies, and could soon match the United States in military strength.
Despite this rhetoric, Merz is traveling with a 30-member business delegation, including CEOs from major German companies such as Bayer, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Siemens, as well as other top managers. According to the Institute of German Economy (IW) in Cologne, German companies invested more than €7 billion in China last year – the highest amount in at least four years, and around 55 percent more than in the two previous years.
While the German government continues to talk about de-risking – a concept from its 2023 China strategy – companies are continuing to expand their presence. China remains a key growth market for many corporations, despite political tensions and increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers. This apparent contradiction highlights the complex challenges facing Germany as it navigates its relationship with China.
Part of the answer lies in a geopolitical shift. Many Western governments are seeking closer ties with Beijing because the United States, under President Donald Trump, has proven to be an unpredictable partner. China is presenting itself as a stable alternative in this environment. As nations reassess their foreign economic risks, Beijing is emerging as an option.
However, China itself has not fundamentally changed. It continues to threaten to close markets or restrict exports of strategically key goods, such as critical minerals, if political conflicts escalate. There has been no fundamental change in its economic and diplomatic support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.
A particularly sensitive issue will be whether Merz can pressure Beijing over potential Chinese arms deliveries or military support for Russia. Mikko Huotari of the China think tank Merics assumes the Chancellor will raise the issue, but warns against unrealistic expectations.
He believes there is no naiveté regarding the chances of achieving substantial concessions. While Merz is convinced he can be more successful than his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, who had asked China to influence Russia, Huotari does not expect any significant breakthrough. The issue will likely serve as a talking point rather than a leverage point, with economic pragmatism remaining at the center of the trip.
Germany Lacks Leverage
Germany lacks leverage in the Ukraine issue, in part because China perceives the country as economically weakened, and vulnerable. Think tanks point to structural problems such as low growth dynamics and demographic challenges.
Eva Seiwert of Merics says Merz will be portrayed in Chinese analyses primarily as economically oriented and pragmatic. His Munich speech, in which he emphasized Europe’s strategic autonomy, will be seen as a sign that Europe is seeking greater independence.
China sees an opportunity in this, to help Germany out of its economic difficulties. The sharper passages regarding systemic rivalry play a lesser role in Chinese reporting. Generally, there is little reporting in China about the upcoming visit, as It’s not a priority.
Regarding Taiwan, Beijing’s threats, and the increasingly aggressive military actions around the island, firm positions are expected. Xi Jinping now raises the issue himself during visits from Western leaders. The German side emphasizes the status quo and the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait. No substantial breakthroughs are expected in these or other contentious issues.
the focus of this trip is less on individual economic agreements and more on the strategic direction. Both German politics and German business are unsure how to reconcile the combination of sharp systemic rhetoric and growing investment in China.
Christina zur Nedden is a China and Asia correspondent. She has reported for WELT from East and Southeast Asia since 2020.
