Milaan-San Remo 2026: Pogacar vs Van der Poel – Preview & Favorites

Let the classics season initiate! After a busy start to the cycling calendar, Saturday marks the first monumental classic of 2026: Milan-San Remo. In La Primavera, Tadej Pogacar will gaze to fill a significant gap in his palmares, but he’ll have to get past Mathieu van der Poel first. WielerFlits previews the race!

History

Last Edition

A single attack can sometimes say more than a thousand words. For older cycling fans who grew up in the era of Eddy Merckx, it may be hard to imagine that there is currently a cyclist riding who might be even better than the now eighty-year-old Belgian cycling legend. More complete, more brilliant, and more flamboyant than the man who won countless major cycling races in the 1960s and 70s.

Every era has its phenomena, but Tadej Pogačar might be the greatest phenomenon of them all. But even phenomena sometimes collide with unforeseen forces of nature. March 22, 2025. The slopes of the Poggio. Three riders jointly tackle this 3.7 kilometer climb – the traditional decider in Milan-San Remo – for years.

photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

The man in the white jersey with rainbow stripes is Tadej Pogačar, the tall rider with a full beard goes by the name Filippo Ganna, and the lean but powerful rider in the Alpecin-Deceuninck kit is called Mathieu van der Poel. These three contenders were engaged in a relentless three-way battle for victory in La Primavera on that Saturday in March.

The world champion realizes he needs to make a move early and attacks furiously on the slopes of the penultimate climb, the well-known Cipressa. With his accelerations, Pogačar splits the peloton, but one rider isn’t willing to yield: Van der Poel. The Dutchman doesn’t flinch. Whatever Pogačar tries, the classics specialist has a fitting response each time, even on the Poggio.

On the pedals, in the saddle, leading, from his wheel, and after every turn: Pogačar has to use his full cycling repertoire, but it’s not enough to shake off his Dutch opponent. Van der Poel seems to be counting down the last few hundred meters to the top of the Poggio, but then something unexpected happens. To the surprise of many, not least of all Pogačar.

Three hundred meters from the top of the Poggio, just after the steepest section, Van der Poel unleashes a scorching attack from his legs. With one well-timed and rapid acceleration, Van der Poel momentarily throws the best cyclist in the world off balance. Pogačar manages to rejoin, but the damage is already done. In the subsequent sprint for the win, Van der Poel finishes it off in a grand style.

Course

The time when Milan-San Remo actually started from Milan is long gone. In 2023, Abbiategrasso had the honor of being the starting point, and a year later, riders clicked into their shoes in Pavia. The organization apparently liked this, as the first monumental classic of the season has found an alternative starting point in the Lombardy city for the coming years.

The 117th edition of Milan-San Remo has few surprises in store for the riders. The organization sticks to its proven recipe, while the total distance is almost 300 kilometers this time. After the start, it goes southwest – over mostly flat roads – to the first climb of the day. And that’s immediately a well-known decider.

We are of course talking about the Passo del Turchino. The Turchino was in the early days of Milan-San Remo the only noteworthy climb on the course, roughly halfway through the race, but it was often decisive. The Turchino is now no more than a footnote in the race proceedings, but will provide some nervousness as the first benchmark in the race.

photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

After passing over the Passo del Turchino, the riders descend towards Genoa Voltri and from there they will ride westwards along the coast. Via Varazze, Savona and Albenga, they will then reach the Tre Capi: the Capo Mele, the Capo Cervo and the Capo Berta. From the top of the latter climb, about forty kilometers from the finish, it goes full speed towards the last two climbs of the day: the Cipressa, which has been part of the route since 1982, and the Poggio.

The climb itself doesn’t officially have a name, so it’s named after the village that forms the top: Cipressa (5.6 km at 4.1%). The climb to this village on the Ligurian coast, at an altitude of about 240 meters, is regularly the location where underdogs endeavor a desperate attack, but the race is rarely decided here (although Pogacar would like to prove otherwise). This represents partly due to the ten flat kilometers between the Cipressa and the Poggio, where an approaching peloton has a significant advantage.

Just like the climb, the descent can also have an impact on the race, as the descending line of the SP77 is considered extremely technical. Request Niccolò Bonifazio, who once reached dizzying speeds there to the admiration and dismay of television viewers. The Italian managed to finish that descent well, but that wasn’t always the case. In 1984, Jan Raas had a terrible fall there, with long-term back problems which would mark the end of his career as a professional cyclist.

On the slopes of the Cipressa, the peloton is never far away – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

After the passage over the Cipressa, the riders descend towards the Poggio. The climb itself is 3.7 kilometers long and has an average gradient of 3.7%. A ‘quadratic climb,’ as Tim Krabbé would say.

Just before the top is reached, the slope briefly rises to 8%. The road is very narrow, with four hairpin bends in the first two kilometers. The descent is sometimes challenging, over asphalt roads with several bends that are narrow at certain points. After the last descending kilometers, it’s not far to the finish line in San Remo.

The last two flat kilometers lead over long and straight roads. 850 meters from the finish there is a sharp turn to the left, followed by a turn to the right 750 meters from the finish on the well-known Via Roma.

Favorites

It’s almost unimaginable, but in a not-so-distant past, Milan-San Remo was a classic for sprinters. At least, fast men consistently had a good chance of winning, but that time is over. The days when Mario Cipollini (2002), Óscar Freire (2004, 2007 and 2010), Alessandro Petacchi (2005), Mark Cavendish (2009), Alexander Kristoff (2014), John Degenkolb (2015) and Arnaud Démare (2016) could triumph seem to be over.

This has to do with the race behavior of today’s top riders. The sizeable names of today don’t leave any opportunity or climb unused to set the race on fire. Whether it’s thirty, sixty, or even a hundred kilometers from the finish. Established race scenarios are rewritten, cycling rules are disregarded. In modern cycling, the team leaders throw the cat among the pigeons earlier and earlier.

Riders are increasingly racing with open visors, and there are also multiple teams that benefit from making the race as hard as possible, to throw off the fast men, but we especially look at one man: Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian cycling wonder from Komenda has won almost every conceivable race in recent years and, at 27, is already ticking off still-missing races. One of these races is Milan-San Remo.

Tadej Pogacar – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

Will the world champion finally succeed in his sixth attempt? The leader of UAE Emirates XRG is consistently present in the final of the Italian classic and is often the man who breaks open the race, but riding away on the Cipressa and Poggio proves to be so demanding. Even for a phenomenon like Pogacar. The Slovenian has been trying to crack the code for years, but it’s not rocket science. For Pogacar, it’s critical to make the race as hard as possible, and as early as possible.

There’s an even bigger ‘problem’ for Pogacar and UAE Emirates: they will have to contend with Mathieu van der Poel again this year. The Dutchman was the big spoiler for Pogacar last year and the rider who kept him from winning on the Via Roma. The leader of Alpecin-Premier Tech seems ready to take on the world champion again this spring, as Van der Poel made a strong impression in the early season. At his season debut in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Tirreno-Adriatico, there was no stopping MVDP.

We therefore designate him as the top favorite, given his two previous victories, intrinsic class, explosiveness and ability to finish in the sprint. He must first follow Pogacar on the Cipressa and Poggio, but he showed last year that It’s possible. If Van der Poel succeeds in winning for a third time, he will be on par with cycling greats Fausto Coppi (1946, 1948 and 1949), Roger De Vlaeminck (1973, 1978 and 1979) and Óscar Freire (2004, 2007 and 2010).

Alpecin-Premier Tech, the team of title defender Van der Poel, has two other interesting cards to play. The Belgian formation has with former winner Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves (fifth behind the ‘Big Three’ and Michael Matthews last year) two potential winners in the ranks. If the race unfolds in a way that allows a larger group to sprint, they could be contenders.

Mathieu van der Poel – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

Last year’s race ended in a three-way battle between Pogacar, Van der Poel and… Filippo Ganna. The Italian died a thousand deaths on the Cipressa and Poggio, but was the only one able to hang on to the two cycling phenomena. In the final sprint, the time trialist ended up in that frustrating second place, and will undoubtedly appear with a sense of revenge on Saturday. Will the rider from INEOS Grenadiers secure the first Italian victory since Vincenzo Nibali, who achieved a memorable solo victory in 2018?

Speaking of former winners, we are very curious if Wout van Aert (winner of the ‘covid edition’ of 2020) can challenge Pogacar and Van der Poel on the Cipressa and Poggio. The 31-year-old Belgian is back after two seasons choosing an alternative preparation without Milan-San Remo. This year he chooses a classic spring program again, with all the major cycling appointments, and La Primavera is his first main goal of 2026. With a good Van Aert, you always have to count on, but how good is he now?

Tom Pidcock – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

Visma | Lease a Bike also has multiple irons in the fire, as they also have Christophe Laporte and rising star Matthew Brennan in their ranks. If the race unfolds in a way that allows a larger group to sprint, they could be contenders.

Wout van Aert – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

Lidl-Trek seems to have to change guns given the absence of Mads Pedersen, and so more attention is paid to Mathias Vacek and Jonathan Milan. If the sprinters still have a chance, we also count on Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step), Luke Lamperti, Marijn van den Berg (EF Education-EasyPost) and Biniam Girmay (NSN).

The punchers will want to put a stop to that. Then we first believe of Tom Pidcock, who as the outspoken leader of Pinarello-Q36.5 is more than happy to fight Pogacar and Van der Poel. Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) was able to hook up with the ‘Big Two’ last year and will want to follow for longer – and why not – really challenge the established order.

Julian Alaphilippe – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos

Finally, we also want to mention former winners Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor) and Jasper Stuyven (Soudal Quick-Step), as well as Vincenzo Albanese (EF Education-EasyPost), Alex Aranburu (Cofidis), Rick Pluimers and Matteo Trentin (XDS Astana).

Weather and TV

The weather on Saturday is likely to be good for racing during Milan-San Remo with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a small chance of a local shower. The afternoon temperature in San Remo is around fifteen degrees.

A moderate wind (force 3 or 4) from the southeast to east is expected along the coast on Saturday afternoon. The riders will often have the wind from the left or diagonally behind in the second half of the race, from Genoa onwards.

Milan-San Remo is also live on Eurosport 1 and HBO Max this year – from start to finish. Belgian cycling fans can also tune in to the commercial channel VTM. View all TV channels and broadcast times in our TV guide Cycling on TV.