Poland’s foreign minister has warned that defending NATO’s eastern flank against a potential Russian attack could cost at least €1.2 trillion, a figure dwarfing the country’s current defense budget. The assessment comes as European nations continue to bolster their security commitments amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
According to a speech delivered to parliament, the estimated €1.2 trillion price tag is 24 times greater than Poland’s existing defense spending. For context, the minister noted that the European Union and its member states have collectively provided Ukraine with just under €200 billion in aid since 2022.
The minister emphasized Russia’s continued capacity for conflict, stating, “Despite propaganda claims, Russia is not winning. Do not believe it. Russia is not and has never been invincible.”
The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees and migrants residing in Poland was similarly addressed, with the minister estimating they have boosted the country’s gross domestic product by approximately 100 billion zloty, or roughly €24 billion.
The address also touched upon the evolving relationship between Poland and the United States, reaffirming Washington as Warsaw’s most important military partner and pledging continued allegiance. However, the minister cautioned against complacency, stating that Poland cannot afford to be “naive.”
Recalling historical moments of U.S. Support for Polish independence, the minister also referenced the 1945 Yalta agreement, which placed parts of Central and Eastern Europe within the Soviet sphere of influence. He pointed out that, like China, the United States abstained from voting on a United Nations General Assembly resolution concerning Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
“If we replace 1945 Japan with modern-day China, can we be sure that American interests will remain in harmony with Polish interests?” he questioned.
The minister stated that Poland has significantly increased its defense spending in recent years and is assuming greater responsibility within NATO in Europe. He also referenced Polish soldiers’ participation in operations in Afghanistan, indirectly responding to previous comments made by the U.S. President regarding allied contributions.
A recent public opinion poll was also cited, revealing that 54 percent of Poles do not consider the United States a reliable ally, while 35 percent hold the opposite view.
