Norway’s housing market, which has seen a 6.3% price increase this year, is showing signs of a potential slowdown as November closes. Experts are forecasting a slight dip in prices nationwide,driven by decreased buyer activity and a lack of new construction to meet demand. While the trend is expected to hold across much of the country, regional markets in Bergen, Stavanger, and Tromsø are predicted to remain resilient.
Norwegian home prices have seen a 6.3% increase so far this year, but recent market activity suggests a potential shift. Real estate experts are anticipating a slight dip in prices as November closes, reflecting a slowdown in buyer demand.
Grethe Meier, Chief Broker at Privatmegleren, expects a price decrease of between 0.5% and 1% in the current cycle.
Meier attributes this forecast to lower activity levels observed throughout November compared to previous months. The housing market is a key indicator of economic health, and fluctuations in price and demand can signal broader trends.
“There are fewer showings and fewer bidders participating in auctions. We’re not seeing any bidding wars right now,” Meier told Nettavisen. “I expect prices to fall.”
However, the cities of Bergen, Stavanger, and Tromsø are expected to buck this trend. These regional markets demonstrate resilience despite the broader national slowdown.
Outside of these areas, the market is currently favoring buyers. “There’s a lot of choice available, and less pressure to make quick decisions,” Meier explained.
The capital city, Oslo, is particularly well-supplied with available properties, with a continued influx of former rental units coming onto the market.
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– Will not happen
A key factor contributing to the potential price decline is a lack of new construction.
Sverre Molvik, CEO of Selvaag Bolig, a housing development company, explained that the industry is struggling to meet demand.
“We operate in the major cities. We are able to start new housing projects there. In central areas such as Greater Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger, it is possible.”
In other parts of the country, costs exceed revenues, making new residential construction financially unviable for developers.
“The developer cannot subsidize people’s home purchases. Costs must be lower than revenues. There will be no housing growth until technical requirements for construction are eased to reduce costs. That is unlikely to happen. Interest rates may fall somewhat, but there will be no explosion in housing construction.”
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It will not happen
– But there have been interest rate cuts this year. Why isn’t that helping the construction industry?
– There have been interest rate cuts, but fewer than buyers expected.
Buyers are hesitant to purchase a property in a new development when they are uncertain about the value of their current home, Molvik explained.
“It will take more for things to really pick up.”
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Forecasts price growth from the new year
While housing growth is stalled, price increases could resume from the new year. The housing market’s performance is closely watched as a barometer of economic confidence.
“We believe there will be good activity already from January, and a good price increase in January and February. Stavanger, Bergen and Tromsø will drive prices the most. There will also be a number of rental properties for sale in 2026,” Meier said.
The brokerage expects a price increase of five to six percent in 2026.
