Goldman Sachs has warned of the potential for a historic surge in oil prices, citing escalating regional conflict and disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The investment bank believes continued restrictions on vessel traffic in this critical waterway could trigger a severe supply shock, pushing prices to unprecedented levels.
According to a research note released Saturday, March 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs anticipates oil prices will quickly surpass $100 per barrel if shipping restrictions aren’t lifted before the end of March. Should disruptions to oil flows through the Strait persist throughout the month, prices could climb above the peaks seen in 2008 and 2022.
Strait of Hormuz at the Heart of the Energy Crisis
These warnings carry significant weight as the Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy supplies, facilitating the passage of approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption. Recent military escalation in the region has caused substantial paralysis in tanker traffic, prompting markets to rapidly price in the risk of supply shortages.
The developments coincide with a sharp increase in prices in recent days, with U.S. Crude oil surpassing $92 a barrel after a weekly jump of 36% – the largest weekly increase since futures contracts for this crude began trading in the 1980s. Brent crude similarly rose to around $92.7 a barrel, representing a weekly increase of nearly 28%.
Potential to Surpass Historical Peaks
The bank’s analysis indicates that current risks extend beyond crude oil prices to refined products like gasoline and diesel. According to the research note, a continued supply disruption could drive prices to levels exceeding the historical highs reached in July 2008, when oil reached approximately $147 per barrel. The potential for significantly higher prices underscores the sensitivity of global energy markets to geopolitical instability.
Analysts at the bank suggest that a scenario of prices reaching around $150 per barrel is no longer improbable if the conflict persists and oil flows through the Strait remain limited. Several energy sector officials have warned that such a surge could create a global wave of inflation and put significant pressure on the international economy.
Shifting Market Estimates
Initially, many analysts believed the impact of the conflict would be relatively limited due to ample global supply. However, the expansion of the conflict and the ongoing disruption to shipping have led a growing number of experts to revise their forecasts toward a more pessimistic outlook. The evolving situation highlights the challenges in accurately predicting market responses to geopolitical events.
Concerns have also increased following announcements from some producing countries to reduce their output or curtail oil operations for security reasons, which could exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand in the coming weeks. QatarEnergy declared force majeure, although the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced a precautionary reduction in oil production and refining operations.
